tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31079675527733507102024-03-13T06:28:35.870-07:00Isiah Was a ProphetChris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-21719339118304488732015-10-29T15:29:00.001-07:002015-10-29T15:29:01.177-07:00Drummond's free throw shooting<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Last season, Andre Drummond was the worst free throw shooter in the NBA. On 365 attempts, he shot a dismal 38.9%, edging out the only other shooter in his vicinity (DeAndre Jordan), who shot 39.7% on 471 attempts. Mason Plumlee was the third-worst free throw shooter last year, and he shot 10% better than Jordan. Hack-a-Drummond become a viable and frequently used tactic against the Pistons, forcing Stan Van Gundy to pull the team's best player off the floor during important stretches. Fast forward to today, and I will show you the power of Small Sample Size Theater.<br />
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Through two games this season, Drummond is shooting 14-21 from the free throw line. I do not purport that this is sustainable, but there is something different about Drummond's form that extends beyond the confidence or luck. If Drummond can maintain a 66% free throw percentage, that not only makes Hack-a-Drummond an obsolete strategy for opposing teams, but it also makes his ceaseless effort around the rim and on the offensive glass more of a threat. In an effort to see what has changed, I have put his form from last year and this season side-by-side to see what's different.<br />
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The first thing you'll see is his posture. Previously, Drummond would begin hunched over, which throws off his balance and follow through. Look too at his feet. Though they are relatively similar in their positioning form year-to-year, previously, Drummond would lean too far onto the balls of his toes, affecting his balance.</td></tr>
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As Drummond would pull the ball up, his arms would extend outward, increasing the chances of mistakes in his form. This season, his form is more compact, keeping the ball inside of his frame, resulting in more consistency.</td></tr>
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This is where, in previous years, his form really gets into trouble. Drummond would rise up on his toes and start leaning forward. His balance is completely broken here, which makes consistency impossible. Combine that with how far outside of his frame the ball is, and you can understand why his performance from the line has been so bad to date.</td></tr>
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Now, as he begins his release, his arms are in a much more natural shooting position. His off elbow is bent and supporting the ball properly, allowing his shooting arm and follow through to do the majority of the work. His previous form was not dissimilar from Joakim Noah's two-armed heave, something that works for Noah and no one else. His stance is also much improved. In the past, Drummond was almost reaching for the basket. Here, he is actually shooting the ball.</td></tr>
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Posture. Balance. Follow through. All improved this season. His wrist was always fluid on his follow through in the past, but without the fundamentals in place, his shot was erratic.</td></tr>
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Pose. Announcers will cite his confidence as the reason his free throwing shooting has improved and this stance is why. Drummond went from a player praying the ball will go in to one that trusts his fundamentals to do the work for him.<br />
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This may be a short-lived increase in efficiency from the line, but I would guess that he shoots in the 55-60% range this season. If he shot 60% from the line last season, he would have notched 77 more points for the team, nearly increasing the overall points per game by an entire point. That's a big deal. Caveats to the sample size noted, these improvements to his stroke, if they can be maintained, will see his shooting percentage jump significantly. Worst-case scenario will likely have him shoot in the 45% range this season, but that seems unlikely given early returns.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-57694320919527984352015-10-28T10:55:00.002-07:002015-10-28T10:55:53.339-07:00The Rise: '15-'16 Season Preview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
With loads of young talent and a rotation that makes sense, this is a proving ground year for most of these players. Jennings and Smith are undertaking reclamation projects. For Smith, he wants to prove that he can both help lead a young team (something he was accused of being unable to do in Atlanta) as well as recover from the worst season of his career. Jennings may finally be able to come through on his promise of becoming a more complete, effective player in Detroit; he finally has the teammates and will now have the scheme. Monroe wants a big contract. KCP wants a career. Meeks and Augustin want to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. This is a blue collar team the way that Dumars imagined, but not for the reasons he hoped.</blockquote>
Few teams in the NBA played below their talent level last season as significantly as the Pistons. Last year's preview here was titled <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/10/reclamation-14-15-season-preview.html" target="_blank">Reclamation</a>, fitting nomenclature but for the wrong reasons. Following the disastrous 5-23 start, the Pistons unceremoniously cut the highest-paid player on their team and began the work of reclaiming their already-lost season. They immediately went on a seven-game win streak and, despite a 10-game losing streak in the final 54 games of the season, closed the year 27-27 following Josh Smith's departure. The Pistons had won just enough games to lose a top-five draft pick and looked to most like a team stuck in the endless cycle of sub-mediocrity where mid-lottery teams fester.<br />
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Stan Van Gundy has since drawn comparisons to the other coach/GM in the league: Doc Rivers and his disastrous handling of the Clippers roster. Before the '14-'15 season SVG let Greg Monroe, a problematic albeit talented young player, sign the qualify offer, and watched as he entered free agency unrestricted and unwilling to return to Detroit. In the offseason, Reggie Jackson's contract was widely criticized. The acquisitions of Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris were seen as minor blips on the radar. And one of the stories of the draft was how lucky the Miami Heat were that Justise Winslow dropped to them in the draft, an obvious slight at SVG for drafting Stanley Johnson with the 8th pick.<br />
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You could be forgiven for believing most pre-season projections that had the Pistons well outside of the playoffs. But this is not the same Pistons team that you saw last year, or the last six devastating lottery years for that matter.<br />
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Pistons look waaaaaaay more like an SVG team than last year.</div>
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) <a href="https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/659173597789863936">October 28, 2015</a></blockquote></center>
One of the more interesting storylines of the offseason was the cognitive dissonance that most NBA writers displayed when discussing the Pistons, specifically with regards to Reggie Jackson. It usually went something like this: Reggie Jackson was wonderful in his 27 games with the Pistons, reaching career highs in points, assists, and free throw attempts per 36 minutes, but <i>you just can't rely on Reggie Jackson</i>. Had Jackson achieved these numbers while filling in for Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, you could make the argument that they are an aberration. But it's harder to make that argument about a fourth-year player joining his second team and his first with a real coach and offensive system. Jackson hasn't proven to be a superstar but he has shown to be more than he was in Oklahoma City.<br />
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But as has been true since SVG arrived in Detroit, the team lives and dies by Andre Drummond, who disappointed in his third season with the Pistons. The notable jump in production from his rookie to sophomore campaigns pointed toward a star on the rise, but when his production stagnated from year two to year three, questions arose around Drummond. Is he just a less effective DeAndre Jordan? Will he ever develop an offensive game? Can he defend anyone one-on-one? Drummond enters this season poised to sign a huge contract regardless of the outcome. To bring adequate value on that contract, however, Drummond needs to improve in almost all facets of his game. His offensive production is less critical that developing into a lock-down post defender and rim protector, both things the Pistons desperately need. After the season opener, it's clear that his offensive post moves still lack even basic functionality, but being a rebounding terror should suffice with the bevy of outside shooters that the Pistons employ.<br />
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Last season's biggest weakness (wing depth) is trending toward a strength. With the acquisition of Morris, the Pistons gained a versatile small forward that can play multiple positions. Morris will revive the role of Hedo Turkoglu on the '08-'09 Magic, an oversized but mobile small forward capable of hitting outside shots and defending most positions on the floor. The most dramatic change in the Pistons' season opener from last year's team was the speed and aggression of the defense. Without Greg Monroe on the floor, incapable of guarding stretch power forwards, the Pistons defense switches frequently, fights over screens on the perimeter, and recovers to shooters. Where once Kyle Singler and Monroe attempted to fill holes in this defense, the Pistons have downsized to Morris and Ilyasova, who zip around the court and take turns defending opposing bigs on the block.<br />
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And then there's the Pistons' duo of athletic wings Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Stanley Johnson, the former in a make-or-break season, the latter listed as one of the favorites to win rookie of the year honors. In KCP, the Pistons continue to get a voracious defender and transition threat. His development in finishing, ball handling, and shooting have been a long time coming and still a ways off. But if he can become a reliable outside threat, the other issues will be less impactful. Short of hitting ~40% from outside, however, KCP's value as an NBA starter will almost entirely evaporate. Johnson, meanwhile, comes into the NBA more physically ready than most other rookies in recent memory. What he lacks in height, he makes up for in non-stop effort and an ability to play larger than his frame. The team's ability to play anywhere from one to three of their dynamic wings allows them to handle any matchup that the league can throw their way.<br />
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If one weakness presented itself in the season opener, it was the bench unit, one that has played scant minutes together and is missing a critical piece in Brandon Jennings. Steve Blake, Aron Baynes, and Jodie Meeks on the floor together struggle to produce any consistent offense. To compound issues, the perimeter reserves are uniformly terrible defenders, as evidenced by the parade of Atlanta guards attacking the basket unmolested last night. But when Jennings returns, the bench production receives an offensive boost, while SVG can mitigate the defensive issues with substitution patterns that don't see the entire bench unit playing together.<br />
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The Pistons do not project to be contenders this season. But they'll be closer to contender than the '14-'15 trainwreck. Outside of Detroit, not a lot of people have watched the Pistons over the last three years. Seeing what appear to be off-base GM moves and the lack of a big-name acquisition have caused most to write off the Pistons this season and proclaim the SVG coach/GM experiment to be a flop. But Stan Van Gundy's Pistons have only played one real game together. Last season saw a disastrously constructed roster perform disastrously. In 10 months, the Pistons shed a program cancer (Smith), an awkward roster fit (Monroe), and turned spare parts (Singler, DJ Augustin) into the coach's preferred point guard. They drafted an NBA-ready wing, signed a stretch power forward, and have continued to develop their young core. When Jennings returns from injury, this team will finally feel like the team SVG has been envisioning.<br />
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Forty-five wins is not out of reach for this team. Neither is 38 wins. Without the depth to be a contender this season, those numbers are inconsequential. What the Pistons need to show this year is development and improvement, however that manifests itself, be it via win total, personal statistics, or just passing the eye test. If Stan Van Gundy hasn't earned your trust yet, he will by the season's end. With a system that dovetails the prevailing trends in the NBA, the Pistons' offense should skyrocket up statistical measures, while the construction of the roster will enable sub-par individual defenders to coalesce into a speedy, competent defense that can handle the changing NBA landscape.<br />
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Go Pistons.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-66851693922750442902015-07-05T18:14:00.002-07:002015-07-05T18:14:24.679-07:00Pistons Summer League: Games 1 and 2<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The playoffs are over and the draft has come and gone, which means NBA Summer League is here, the time for wild exaggerations and unbridled expectations. Having been terrible for approaching a decade, the Pistons have used Summer League to display their lottery picks' potential. Andre Drummond dominated the glass and threw down monstrous dunks in his stint in Orlando. KCP scored at will last year. This season, the Pistons have draft picks Stanley Johnson and Darrun Hilliard, as well as last year's second round pick Spencer Dinwiddie on display.<br />
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The caveat that always accompanies Summer League columns is not to read too much into performances, but I find that to be reductive. Raw numbers won't tell you much about how a player will perform when the regular season begins, but watching individual players reveals clear strengths and weaknesses that will display themselves throughout the season. Ignoring what happens in Summer League is willfully ignorant. But because you (understandably) don't want to watch Summer League, I do. Here are some observations.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Stanley Johnson</span></b><br />
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The Pistons' first-round selection has performed up to or above all expectations. Through two games, Johnson looks like one of the better players in the league. Johnson is averaging 18.5 points per game, but more impressive is his efficiency. In his first game, coming off the bench, he tallied 13 points on 5-8 shooting. In today's tilt, he scored 24 points on 10-14 shooting. He has shot 2-5 from outside and a disappointing 5-10 from the free throw line, but as aforementioned, raw numbers don't mean much in Summer League.<br />
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Here is a real caveat: Johnson was destined to look like a men amongst boys in Summer League. Because of his superior physique, his ability to bully smaller players and sub-NBA talent is unsurprising. But the way Johnson has scored his points is impressive. Though lacking in elite athleticism, Johnson has taken contact well and scored at the rim on countless possessions. He has also displayed a consistent and nuanced inbetween game, using both hard jump stops and floaters to score on a variety of drives.<br />
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Johnson's greatest strength is his spatial and physical awareness. He understands his superior physique and finds avenues to use it on the court. He is adept at shielding defenders around the basket with his body, as well as using his size to brush off help defenders on drives. Johnson shows a savvy indicative of players with far more experience and age. That his understanding of the game and his physicality are already at this level means good things for his future.<br />
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The biggest positive surprises have been his passing and offensive rebounding. Given how Johnson excels at getting into the lane, his ability to find cutters and spot-up shooters is a major asset. Johnson has shown the ability to pass off the dribble and see the floor in traffic, and while Reggie Jackson projects to be the primary ball handler, when Johnson drives off of close-outs this season, his passing will prove a major asset. The other surprise has been his nose for offensive rebounds. Johnson has pulled down 5 offensive rebounds in two games, a skill that looks somewhat replicable in the NBA. He'll never dominate the glass, but he could be an exceptional rebounding shooting guard/small forward.<br />
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Not all has been positive for Johnson, however. Notably, his handle looks barely functional. Because he uses his strength to attack defenders, his need for effective moves has escaped him. His go-to move appears to be an in-out dribble with his right hand that no defender is fooled by. Compounding issues is his balance while dribbling. Johnson plays too much on the insides of his feet rather than the balls of his feet, causing him to slip frequently while trying to break down defenders. The other notable negative in Johnson's game is his lateral defensive foot speed. It may be a small sample size issue, but several times, the man that Johnson is defending will blow by him from the perimeter for an easy shot at the rim. With the replacement of Greg Monroe with Ersan Ilyasova, and Drummond's continuing struggles as a rim defender, Johnson will need to be sharper on the perimeter if he is going to earn significant minutes.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Spencer Dinwiddie</span></b><br />
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Dinwiddie was Detroit's only draft pick last season and was a potential draft steal as a lottery talent that dropped to the second round because of a college knee injury. Last season, Dinwiddie fluctuated between overwhelmed rookie and promising future contributor. This Summer League, Dinwiddie has been atrocious. He is 5-16 from the floor, has 9 assists to 12 turnovers, and allowed Nate Wolters to shoot 7-12 and Keith Appling shoot 4-7 (scoring 17 points, mostly on Dinwiddie fouls). On both ends of the floor, Dinwiddie has looked unprepared for competition, especially troubling since he is a second-year player. This was Dinwiddie's time to show his improvement and ability to contribute in the NBA. His utter regression has been the worst part of the Summer League.<br />
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There may be a reason why Dinwiddie has performed so poorly. Without actual insider knowledge, my guess is that the coaches have tasked Dinwiddie with getting to the rim. He turns down open three pointers, the kind that he took with abandon last season. Instead, he opts to attack the rim and drive into traffic. This has produced the results you see above. Dinwiddie is another player who relies on his physical attributes to get his points. Unlike Johnson, however, Dinwiddie utilizes his superior size (he is a 6'6" point guard) to score. Asking him to work between the tackles (as it were) has shown his limitations, both in his dribble moves as well as his ability to take contact and finish.<br />
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How this translates to the season is unclear. What is clear is his total inability to finish at the rim. He expects more foul calls than he receives (though he's shot 12 free throw attempts in the two games) and hasn't changed his attack plan to compensate for this. Dinwiddie lacks the inbetween game that makes Johnson so effective; he's a straight line runner. Seeing over the defense and spot up shooting are his two most marketable skills. His Summer League marching orders have stripped him of those benefits and it shows.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Darrun Hilliard</span></b><br />
The Pistons drafted Hilliard, a four-year point guard with Villanova, 38th overall in this draft. There's little to discuss with Hilliard, who looks like a prototypical four-year, second-round draft pick. Overwhelmed athletically but crafty, Hilliard doesn't project for a long NBA life. He is 5-20 from the field (2-5 from 3) and doesn't offer any skill that can't be found elsewhere. Expect him to spend this season with the Pistons but not to be re-signed in 2016 as the team tries to make some splashy moves in free agency.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Next Up</span></b><br />
The Pistons are 1-1 after their first two games and play the Miami Heat tomorrow. If you're going to watch any game of the Summer League, tomorrow's is the one to watch. Johnson takes on Justise Winslow, the SG/SF that was available to the Pistons and who many talking heads believe will be a better player. Watching the two of them play head-to-head will be exciting, putting on display two of the better wing prospects from the draft. Aside from feeling better (or worse) about who the Pistons drafted, seeing how Johnson stacks up against elite-level talent (of which he hasn't seen in the first two games) should tell a lot about how his strengths and weaknesses will translate to the regular season.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-65101445198515193472015-06-22T11:59:00.002-07:002015-06-22T11:59:58.611-07:00Let's talk about it: Jennings for Hardaway trade<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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An interesting rumor has hit the internet that the Pistons are engaged in talks with the New York Knicks to trade Brandon Jennings for Tim Hardaway Jr. Since the <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-knicks/post/_/id/62336/uclas-kevon-looney-could-fit-with-knicks" target="_blank">rumor</a> is coming from someone other than Frank Isola, you can feel confident that it has at least some veracity. There's a lot going on here that should be worked out, though. So let's talk about it.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Preamble</span></b><br />
Brandon Jennings will not finish the season in a Pistons uniform. In fact, it's likely that he won't even start the season in a Pistons jersey. This much was obvious the moment the Pistons traded for Reggie Jackson. People have forgotten just how little Stan Van Gundy trusts or likes Jennings' playstyle. Lost in the trove of horrible games this season was SVG regularly sitting Jennings in the fourth quarter in favor of DJ Augustin. Jennings and SVG butted heads regularly throughout the season and, despite Jennings' improved play before his injury, his time with the Pistons was nearing its end.<br />
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This is only emphasized by the play of Spencer Dinwiddie, who wavered between overwhelmed rookie and the lottery pick he was supposed to be before his knee injury at Colorado. Not only does Dinwiddie project to be a notable role player off the Pistons bench next season, but he fits the SVG point guard mold: long, athletic, high basketball IQ. Dinwiddie has far more in common physically with Jackson than he does Jennings, and it's clear what type of team SVG is constructing.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Hardaway for Jennings swap</span></b><br />
A one-for-one swap between the Knicks and Pistons is technically possible although highly improbable. Jennings is entering the third year of the contract he signed with the Pistons, earning $8M this season. Hardaway, meanwhile, is still on his rookie contract and making only $1.25M. However, despite the disparity in contracts, the trade can still work if the Knicks utilize a few of their trade exceptions, notably the nearly $6M exception they gained from trading JR Smith to the Cavaliers this season.<br />
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From the Pistons' perspective, this is an awful trade. Though Jennings is returning from a knee injury, he had perhaps the best stretch of his career last season and is on an affordable contract. Jennings is the Pistons' best trade chip. Exchanging that for a middling 3-point specialist with upside would be a waste of Jennings' value. Meanwhile, the Knicks have Jose Calderon on the books for two more seasons at $7M each and no other shooting guard prospects beyond Hardaway. Jennings would be a big improvement over Calderon, and the Knicks will probably make a run at Aaron Afflalo who recently opted out of the final year of his contract, as well as other free agents. Overall, this trade benefits the Knicks more than the Pistons (New York is getting a better player for no cost, essentially), and doesn't make a lot of sense for Detroit to pursue.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Trade includes a pick swap as well</span></b><br />
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There are rumblings that the Pistons and Knicks might swap draft picks in addition to exchanging Hardaway and Jennings. This is really the only way that this deal makes sense for Detroit. The Pistons hold the 8th pick in the draft this year which puts them in line to take an impactful player. By my estimation, of the players that the Pistons can realistically draft, they should value in order: Justise Winslow/Mario Hezonja, Kelly Oubre, and Stanley Johnson. The falloff from Winslow and Hezonja to Oubre and Johnson feels stark, however, and the likelihood of the Pistons being able to draft one of the former drops notably with the 8th pick.<br />
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Getting the 4th pick gives the Pistons free rein. With Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor essentially locked into the top two positions, the 76ers, selecting 3rd, would be all that stands between the Pistons and their pick of the litter. With major needs at point guard--and an overload in the frontcourt making Kristaps Porzingis redundant--Russell and Mudiay seem like the most likely selections for Philadelphia. That Porzingis, who many project as a top-flight NBA player, might be available to the Pistons in the 4th position makes the trade even more enticing.<br />
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But why would the Knicks trade down for a player of Jennings' mercurial ilk in a draft with these players? Does the Knicks front office really expect Jennings and Carmelo to co-exist with only one ball on the court? New York has needs at almost every position. Jennings could help shore up the backcourt, making the need for Russell or Mudiay less immediate. And if Phil Jackson's comments on three-point shooting and his desire to run the triangle in perpetuity are to be believed, Porzingis is not a player they'd consider even if he were still available.<br />
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And herein lies why the Knicks might be willing to trade down: most of the elite players available in this draft are small forwards, of which the Knicks have a pretty good one. The only player anyone consistently projects in the top prospects who could fall to 8th is Willie Cauley-Stein. With the Magic, Kings, and Nuggets drafting in front of the Knicks now, they could upgrade at point guard with Jennings while still getting the kind of prospect that they value and would fit into their system (even Frank Kaminsky or Myles Turner, both of whom the Knicks have worked out, could fit their needs and will be available at 8).<br />
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If this trade is going to happen, the pick swap will make it work, barring an unforeseen third team that gets involved.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">What does Hardaway do for the Pistons?</span></b><br />
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In Hardaway, SVG is trading for a three-point specialist, the likes of which he went after last offseason by acquiring Jodie Meeks and Cartier Martin. I have been firmly in favor of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope being the Pistons' shooting guard of the future, and acquiring THJ doesn't necessarily put that in jeopardy. The Pistons are actually thin at all of the wing positions, shooting guard included. KCP, Meeks, and Martin are the only wing players that the Pistons have on the roster for 2015-2016. With the expectation that they draft a small forward, that still leaves the team bereft of wing depth. KCP, Meeks, THJ, and [hypothetical draft pick] is a fine four-man rotation in theory, but an injury to any one of them creates a major gap in the depth chart. Meanwhile, losing Jennings forces Dinwiddie into a major role backing up Reggie Jackson. An injury to either of them could be a major problem, but SVG seems far more willing to play unassuming veteran point guards than sacrifice his wing shooting depth.<br />
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But Hardaway would be more than an insurance policy. Hardaway is an exceptional spot-up three-point shooter. His rookie season, he shot 36% from outside. A dip to 34% in his sophomore campaign (slightly worse than KCP in the same season) is troubling, but THJ was asked to do quite a bit more during his second year in the league. For the Pistons, he would be a constant threat to knock down threes from the corner. In other words, the exact kind of player the Pistons need on their roster, his defensive deficiencies notwithstanding.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Does this trade happen?</span></b><br />
This seems like a fever dream trade. Trading up to the 4th pick in this draft would be ideal for the Pistons, while having a clear path to that reality seems hard to believe. This draft and the Knicks' investment in Carmelo put the Pistons in a unique situation this year, but you can be sure other teams will be clamoring for the Knicks pick if it really is up for grabs. It has been rumored for weeks that if Okafor and Towns are off the board by the time the Knicks pick, they'll look to trade it. But good things happening for the Pistons in the draft is fantasy. While this seems entirely plausible, this trade exists in a I'll Believe It When I See It state.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-30575295822035322302015-03-26T10:41:00.000-07:002015-03-26T10:41:23.746-07:00Reggie Jackson and Greg Monroe's injury<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Reggie Jackson's short stint with the Pistons had an inauspicious start. The team began 1-10 in Jackson's first 11 games and the Internet promptly lost its marbles. I preferred tempered optimism, citing Brandon Jennings' and DJ Augustin's turbulent beginnings under Stan Van Gundy, overall personnel concerns, and Jackson's notoriously poor previous coaching situation as reasons to extinguish the fires exploding from everyone's ears. The one <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2015/03/reggie-jackson-caused-cuban-missile.html" target="_blank">notable cause for concern</a> was Jackson's perimeter shooting paired with Detroit's deployment of Monroe and Drummond:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
It should be noted, however, that Jackson's lack of shooting and SVG's allegiance to him may spell the end of Monroe in Detroit... Jackson's a point guard with limited range, and given the effect that a non-shooting lineup has had on this team and on Jackson himself, replacing Monroe with a stretch threat might be essential. (Jackson's numbers are almost universally better with only one of the two bigs on the floor than with both according to NBAwowy.com. His numbers are better with Monroe than with Drummond, for what it's worth.) Monroe's future notwithstanding, putting Jackson on the floor with two conventional bigs may not be the best move.</blockquote>
A week later, Monroe strained his knee and we've been given a petri dish of Life Without Monroe from the lab of Small Sample Size Science & Partners. All of the following should be taken with a grain of salt; correlation is not causation. With that in mind, the very real trends that the Pistons have displayed since the loss of Monroe are not encouraging for his future with the team or, perhaps more accurately, the franchise's success if he remains with the Pistons.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">The Raw</span></b><br />
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Jackson's first 11 games with Detroit put on display many of his negative tendencies. He took irresponsible shots, was unable to get to the rim and draw fouls, missed far too open looks, and struggled to make his teammates better. To wit, Jackson's first 11 games:<br />
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 600px;">
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<colgroup><col span="10" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#F0F0F0" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>PPG</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>FG%</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>3FG%</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>FTM</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>FTA</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>RPG</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>APG</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>TO</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>SPG</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">14.3</td>
<td>37.1</td>
<td>27.0</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table>
</center>
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Those numbers do not inspire confidence. SVG requires that his point guards be ball dominant. To have a ball handler produce these numbers will destroy the offense and submarine the team's chance to win.<br />
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Jackson has been on a tear since those first 11 games, producing some of the best numbers of his career. This began happening the moment that Monroe was removed from the lineup, and SVG began playing more lineups featuring a stretch power forward. <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2015/03/reggie-jackson-caused-cuban-missile.html" target="_blank">It should be noted</a> that both Jennings and Augustin before him struggled to adapt to SVG's offense early in their tenure with the team. The following numbers may reflect Jackson's similar rise because of an offensive understanding, not because Monroe was suddenly absent from the lineup. However, that these events coincide should not be disregarded entirely. Whatever the true explanation for the improvement, Jackson's production through the last five games is impressive:<br />
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<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>PPG</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>FG%</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>3FG%</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>FTM</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>FTA</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>RPG</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>APG</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>TO</b></td>
<td style="width: 65pt;" width="65"><b>SPG</b></td>
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<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">20.2</td>
<td>46.3</td>
<td>35.3</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
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</tbody></table>
</center>
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Some of these are to be expected. That his steals per game remains unchanged is a good indicator that he may not be playing above his head across the board, and that something more systemic has caused this shift. Additionally, the increase in rebounding feels obvious. Monroe is an excellent rebounder, and his absence--especially when being replaced by Tayshaun Prince and Anthony Tolliver--creates many more rebounding opportunities for the team. Jackson's length for his position would allow him to capitalize on many of those chances. The rest are eye opening.<br />
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Most notably are the free throw attempts, which skyrocket from 2.0 per game to 4.4. Jackson's inability to stretch the floor clogged the paint for drives and made drawing fouls difficult. With Monroe's minutes replaced by players who attack from beyond 10 feet, Jackson has had less difficulty getting into the lane and catching helping defenders off guard. In his first 11 games with the team, Jackson took 22 free throws. He matched that total in the ensuing 5 games. This improvement appears more significant than learning the offensive system. Looking at Jennings' and Augustin's production from their first 11 games and after, both saw their FTAs drop slightly on a per-game basis. Learning SVG's system doesn't necessarily produce more free throw attempts for point guards. If it did, we would expect that the prior two players would see similar increases. Jackson's improvement implies that Monroe's absence is a major factor.<br />
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(<i>A caveat: Jennings and Augustin are both undersized and notoriously bad around the rim. If SVG's offense does create more driving lanes and FTAs for point guards, those two would be poor control cases for the theory. They are the most up-to-date examples we have to benchmark Jackson against, though.</i>)<br />
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The shooting percentage increases likely have the same genesis. Without Monroe's defender available to help in the lane, Jackson has increased his shooting percentage to a number more representative of his production in Oklahoma City. His outside shooting, while significantly better than his career performance, is indicative of what SVG's system can do for shooting guards. Jennings shot far better from outside than he had for most of his career, and Augustin's time as a starter saw him shoot nearly a career best. This scheme affords quality looks for point guards.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Where are the shots going?</span></b><br />
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Another shift since Monroe's absence has been the distribution of shots for the team and who Jackson is giving assists to. On the season, the Pistons were averaging 25.1 3FGA per game, good for 10th in the league in attempts. Over the last five games, the Pistons have been averaging 28.0 3FGA, which if they averaged this for the entire season, would make them second only to Houston. Some of this is to be expected: Monroe doesn't take three pointers and replacing him with Tolliver and Prince will naturally generate more outside looks. But given that SVG's system is designed to generate these outside shots, any structural change that does so is probably a good one.<br />
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Jackson's presence in this stat is important. Prior to the Monroe injury, the Pistons attempted only 6.8 3FGA per game from Jackson passes. Following the injury, the team has attempted 11.0 3FGA per game from Jackson passes. Most of those looks are coming from Tolliver, but KCP takes 0.5 more 3FGA per game from Jackson passes, while Jodie Meeks and Caron Butler also saw increases in attempts (the latter because of more playing time).<br />
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Jennings' assist distribution over this time span is also telling. He averaged only 1.7 assists to KCP per game with Monroe, and 3.6 APG to Kentavious without Monroe. Drummond, meanwhile, sees only a 0.5 APG increase since the Monroe injury. Jackson has nearly doubled his assists per game since the Monroe injury, but his assists to Drummond have remained nearly stagnant, illustrating his preference for driving and kicking to perimeter players.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">So... ?</span></b><br />
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As aforementioned, take this with a grain of salt. Five games do not supply proof that these increases are anything more than statistical variance. But in Monroe's first game out, Jackson had 23-20, only the second such game in the NBA this season (the other was produced by Brandon Jennings). Strength of schedule concerns can be tossed aside, though. The Pistons played Memphis, Chicago, and Toronto in this span, in addition to Boston and Philadelphia.<br />
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What this means for Monroe is just as unclear. Monroe is a valuable player in the league, but his ability to co-exist with Jackson could determine whether or not the Pistons try to bring him back in the offseason. Van Gundy has to make nice for the cameras and say how important Monroe is, but given how Jackson performs without him and the looming presence of Draymond Green on the free agent market, you have to assume that the Monroe will be a fall-back option. SVG has stocked the Pistons with stretch power forwards: Tolliver, Shawn Williams, even Tayshaun and Cartier Martin have been playing minutes at the power forward lately. Drummond is critical to the Pistons' nucleus, and Jackson appears to be a priority for the team. Monroe is the odd man out. Unless he wants to play a backup role to Drummond and be a change of pace against teams like Memphis, Monroe doesn't make sense from a personnel standpoint. When he signed the qualify offer, he ceased being an asset for the Pistons. Though it seemed that he may be willing to return, the team's performance without him indicates he may not be worth the it.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-4413864652270737272015-03-11T13:35:00.000-07:002015-03-11T13:35:18.108-07:00Reggie Jackson caused the Cuban Missile Crisis<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Reggie Jackson is not playing good basketball. Full stop. Since coming to the Pistons, Jackson has struggled to find his rhythm, shooting the Pistons out of games and lacking the offensive understanding that DJ Augustin and Brandon Jennings used to lead the Pistons into playoff contention. Some of this was expected. Jackson comes from a notoriously poor coaching situation into one that is heavily guided and requires a high-level understanding of the scheme. Some of it, like the shooting, is troubling. But trying to extrapolate anything more than "Reggie Jackson is not playing good basketball" from his first eight games with the Pistons is on some Stephen A. Smith #hottake shit.<br />
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With <a href="http://www.nba.com/pistons/features/timing-made-it-tough-svg-remains-resolute-jackson-deal-was-pistons-best-long-term-play" target="_blank">Stan Van Gundy all but admitting</a> that the trade-deadline moves made the Pistons worse (intentionally so) it becomes important to look at what Jackson stepped into with the Pistons and look for a reason why he has played so poorly.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Spacing</span></b><br />
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Given the Pistons' recent history, it seems ridiculous that spacing needs to be considered. Josh Smith spent the first 28 games of the season clogging up the Piston offense and heaving ill-advised three pointers. And yet, following the trade deadline, complaints about Jackson's play have centered on his inability to play at a high level, not the fact that the Pistons' spacing may be worse than it was during any time with Smith on the roster. Consider, please the Pistons' current starting five:<br />
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<b>PG:</b> Reggie Jackson (career 29% 3-point shooter)<br />
<b>SG:</b> Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (experiencing an 0-for 18 streak from outside that ended yesterday)<br />
<b>SF:</b> Tayshaun Prince (2015 Tayshaun Prince)<br />
<b>PF:</b> Greg Monroe<br />
<b>C:</b> Andre Drummond<br />
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Monroe and Drummond are obvious. Monroe possesses no consistency beyond 10 feet and Drummond can't shoot at all. But replacing Kyle Singler with Tayshaun is notable. In fact, <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-spacing-agent-courtney-lee-on-the-memphis-grizzlies-hot-start/" target="_blank">replacing a three point shooter with Prince has happened before</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The [Memphis Grizzlies]’s second-most common lineup includes four starters, with Prince sliding in to replace Lee. This group has been much less effective, with opponents actually outscoring it by two points per 100 possessions.<br />
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Replacing Lee with Prince may seem minor on the surface, but it greatly reduces the team’s spacing. It’s a throwback to the pre-Lee days, with Allen and Prince on the wings. These guys don’t exactly strike fear into opponents’ perimeter defenders.</blockquote>
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S_J__4FxKFg/VQB3IoxujNI/AAAAAAAAFPo/fnygvnzxe8U/s1600/allenprince_1152.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S_J__4FxKFg/VQB3IoxujNI/AAAAAAAAFPo/fnygvnzxe8U/s1600/allenprince_1152.jpg" height="260" width="640" /></a><br />
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Ruining the Pistons' spacing will implicitly limit what Jackson can do. As a player who excels at getting into the lane, playing with three other players who can't play beyond 10 feet will hinder Jackson's productivity. The effect of having Tayshaun on the court instead of Singler (or another true floor spacer) cannot be overstated.<br />
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This leads us to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Last night, after KCP missed his first three pointer of the game, the Lakers TV announcers noted that he was in the midst of an 0-19 streak from outside (in reality, it was 0-18, but this doesn't make things any better). It seemed unbelievable, but I looked up the stats: KCP hadn't hit a three pointer since February 28th, a game in which he hit his first but finished 1-5 from outside. He had played 115 game minutes over 4 games (and the start of last night's game) without hitting a three. He wouldn't hit one until late in the first half.<br />
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Whatever your thoughts on KCP may be, he shot 40.3% from outside in the month of February. Through three games in March, he was 0-13 before going 4-10 from outside last night. Prior to this drought, KCP hadn't gone more than a single game without hitting a three pointer. In fact, he only had 10 such games this season before this shooting drought. Why was he suddenly struggling so badly from outside? With four starters unable to threaten defenses from beyond the arc, KCP became the sole focus of defenses looking to limit outside shots. This is more than coincidence.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">The System</span></b><br />
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You would expect that SVG has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to point guards. An abbreviated list of point guards that he has developed into quality-to-good starters: Rafer Alston, Jameer Nelson, Brandon Jennings, DJ Augustin. So maybe cut the guy a little slack. But for giggles, a blind comparison:<br />
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<hr size="1" />
<b>Player A:</b> 15.3 PPG (35.9% FG; 24.1% 3FG), 4.8 RPG, 6.8 APG, 3.3 TO, 0.9 SPG<br />
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<b>Player B:</b> 12.4 PPG (40.6% FG; 43.5% 3FG), 2.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.3 TO, 0.9 SPG<br />
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<b>Player C:</b> 12.4 PPG (38.1% FG; 25.0% 3FG), 2.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 TO, 0.4 SPG<br />
<hr size="1" />
<br />
It may be easy to discern who is who in this, but perhaps not. Player A is Jackson's stint as the Pistons' point guard. Player B is the criminally underrated first 8 games of Brandon Jennings' tenure as a SVG product. And Player C is DJ Augustin's first 8 games this season. By the end of his season, Jennings was widely considered a high-level player. He was scoring 20 points per game, averaging 7.2 assist per game, and shooting 43.5% from the field in his final month. But before the calendar year turned, Jennings had an awful December:<br />
<br />
<b>Jennings' December: </b>9.3 PPG (32.4% FG; 27.3% 3FG), 2.8 RPG, 6.9 APG, 2.4 TO, 0.6 SPG<br />
<br />
Jennings' struggles were largely attributed to the existence of Josh Smith and the Pistons' persistent spacing issues. It wasn't until after Christmas--and the release of Smith--that Jennings exploded, turning in potentially the best month of his career before the injury that sidelined him. Not only was Jennings set free by the new construction of the team, but he became notably more comfortable in SVG's system, one that asks quite a bit from the point guard.<br />
<br />
A similar meteoric rise from Jackson should not be anticipated, but it also shouldn't be ruled out. SVG puts the ball in the hands of his point guard as much or more than any coach in the league. Reggie Jackson currently handles the ball for 8 minutes per game, 4th most in the league. Jennings held the ball for 7 minutes (14th most in the league) and Augustin 5.9 as a Piston (31st most in the league despite being a bench player for the better part of the season). It takes time to implement the offense, understand your teammates, and work within the structure of the team. Given that Jackson has hardly been asked to function within a coherent offensive scheme, the learning curve may be greater than usual, but his struggles were not be unexpected.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Now What?</span></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0RE4FpfWuEQ/VQCGBzI1z6I/AAAAAAAAFQI/WCnc4EGX0bU/s1600/chill.JPEG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0RE4FpfWuEQ/VQCGBzI1z6I/AAAAAAAAFQI/WCnc4EGX0bU/s1600/chill.JPEG" height="436" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
First, your chill: find it. This season is over, and hoping for anything other than losses like last night's to the Lakers ignores the most prudent course of action for the Pistons. Van Gundy made these moves for the future and with the <a href="http://www.nba.com/pistons/features/timing-made-it-tough-svg-remains-resolute-jackson-deal-was-pistons-best-long-term-play" target="_blank">full expectation</a> that the team was going to be worse (emphasis added):<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We knew as far as for this year that it was a gamble. Just because of continuity, <b>we would've been better off not making moves. We knew that.</b> We thought we could make those moves and still stay right in the playoff race and <b>we were willing to take that gamble because of what we thought it did for the future.</b></blockquote>
Make no mistake, SVG knew that these trades would tank the season and he did so anyway because that's how you build a good franchise. Anything else he says is the window dressing that coaches/GMs have to say to appease people who bought tickets for that game two weeks from now. SVG has been adamant that Jackson is the point guard of the future, and I think he deserves a little slack and leniency. He turned Brandon Jennings into a crucial player to a streaking team on a playoff run. Give him--and Jackson--time to come to terms with this new situation and find the right pieces.<br />
<br />
It should be noted, however, that Jackson's lack of shooting and SVG's allegiance to him may spell the end of Monroe in Detroit. Prior to the season, conventional wisdom said that Monroe was gone, but as the Pistons turned the corner and the team was developing together, rumors arose that Monroe might consider a return next season. Jackson's a point guard with limited range, and given the effect that a non-shooting lineup has had on this team and on Jackson himself, replacing Monroe with a stretch threat might be essential. (Jackson's numbers are almost universally better with only one of the two bigs on the floor than with both according to <a href="http://nbawowy.com/" target="_blank">NBAwowy.com</a>. His numbers are better with Monroe than with Drummond, for what it's worth.) Monroe's future notwithstanding, putting Jackson on the floor with two conventional bigs may not be the best move.<br />
<br />
The positive side of Jackson's poor play is that re-signing him this offseason may be easier. A rough, troubled stint in Oklahoma City already brought his market value down, but if he underachieves in a new situation, it may make him more affordable. Because this is still the player that turned down $48 million/4 years from a perennial contender. Jackson doesn't think that he should sign a small contract, but if the league does, that will work to the Pistons' benefit.<br />
<br />
In the short term, the Pistons are going to struggle to finish the season. But these losses do not fall entirely on Jackson, despite how poorly he's played. The composition of this roster doesn't make sense anymore, and the resources and flexibility that SVG had at the start of the season have been expelled. Jackson's development over the next few games will be important, regardless, but this is a feeling-out process, not something that will come together immediately. Even if he doesn't make the turn that Jennings and Augustin did earlier in the season, that may be beneficial for the Pistons' salary negotiations this summer. Jackson remains a talented, young point guard who the team's coach and GM is committed to. So pump the breaks on the doom and gloom.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-24649759936200760542015-03-09T14:29:00.000-07:002015-03-09T14:29:53.998-07:00The tank is real<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
The Pistons are now on a six-game losing streak. They are just 2-6 since the trade deadline and only 1-6 since inserting the new additions into the starting lineup. It seemed <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2015/02/pistons-acquire-reggie-jackson-tayshaun.html" target="_blank">obvious at the time</a> what was happening:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
An important question is whether or not the Pistons are low-key tanking now. Without making any moves, the Pistons could have snuck into the playoffs. Instead, SVG gutted the frontcourt depth, exchanged a deficient small forward for one that hasn't been a viable starter in years, and gambled on a high-risk, high-reward point guard. Meanwhile, the Pistons' primary playoff competition (Miami, Boston, and Brooklyn) all improved, which says nothing about Paul George's imminent return to the Pacers, who are also vying for a playoff spot. If SVG wanted plausible deniability for a tank campaign, today may prove pivotal.</blockquote>
Most notably, Stan Van Gundy exchanged Kyle Singler, a functional albeit lacking spot-up shooting small forward, for Tayshaun Prince, a player who hasn't taken more than 1.8 three-point field goal attempts per game since '06-'07. Now the team faces <a href="http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/nba/pistons/2015/03/06/cold-pistons-lose-fifth-straight-game/24543819/" target="_blank">self-acknowledged spacing issues</a>, made worse because the team's primary ball handler (Reggie Jackson) is a career 29% three-point shooter. And yet as the Pistons stumble to the end of the season, people seem disappointed with the team. Please hear this: Every time the Pistons lose a game, it is a good outcome.<br />
<br />
Aside from acquiring Jackson, a high-ceiling point guard with athleticism to burn and a high pick-and-roll IQ, every move that the Pistons made at the trade deadline was designed to improve draft stock by ditching resources that were not in the team's long-term plans. Even with Singler on the roster, the team's top priority remained finding a top-flight small forward. He was expendable. Jonas Jerebko found his rhythm but was far more valuable as a trade asset than a role player on a team in the midst of a rebuild. DJ Augustin is a career backup and could be dealt without serious reservations given Brandon Jennings' contract status.<br />
<br />
The Pistons are now 5 games out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture with three teams between them and the 8 seed. They currently sit with the 8th worst record (23-39), with Denver (22-41), Sacramento (21-40), and Orlando (21-43) all capable of overtaking them. The difference between where the Pistons are now and where they would be if they made the playoffs is the difference between players like D'Angelo Russell and Willie Cauley-Stein and players like Jerian Grant and Malik Pope. The former are potential franchise centerpieces. The latter are NBA players.<br />
<br />
Since the trade deadline, I've been mumbling about #lowkeytank, but the Pistons' current trajectory is overt. The Pistons need better players and the best way to acquire them is via the draft. Adding Kristaps Porzingis or Stanley Johnson to the Pistons' core of Jackson, KCP, and Andre Drummond would give them another top-flight player on a cheap contract. When you consider that the Pistons will have ~$30 million to play with in free agency, the addition of a lottery-level prospect that can contribute immediately will allow the team to pursue max deal for someone like Draymond Green or acquire a Wes Matthews-caliber talent (or more accurately, both). What the Pistons will lack in feel-goodness and modest playoff ticket sales for the next month, they will make up in the coming years with a functional (dare I say good) basketball team.<br />
<br />
What we learned this year, aside from SVG's brilliance, is that the Pistons are closer to viability than was thought prior to the start of the season. But pushing for the playoffs when there are still notable holes in the roster is a fool's errand, the type of thing perpetually terrible franchises do. And while SVG didn't want an anchor on the team (Josh Smith), he realizes that long-term success in a small market starts with wins in the draft, not at the end of a lost season. With 12 of the Pistons' final 20 games on the road, and 11 against playoff teams, the lottery should be assured for this squad. '15-'16 will be a fresh slate, clear of 5-18 starts and incoherent lineups. You should be rooting for losses. Stan Van Gundy is.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-13156483638487654922015-02-19T16:53:00.000-08:002015-02-19T17:20:45.824-08:00Pistons acquire Reggie Jackson, Tayshaun Prince at the trade deadline<center>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Good lord.<br />
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojYahooNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/568501878746685441">February 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></center>
<br />
The two hours leading up to the NBA trade deadline forced even Adrian Wojnarowski to capitulate. The ever-present NBA behind-closed-doors, front-office prophet was so flabbergasted by the flurry of activity that even he was speechless. Twitter teemed with excitement and shock at the barrage of trades that were being made. Contenders and tankers alike were jockeying for prime contending/tanking position. The 76ers traded away found money in second-round pick KJ McDaniels, sending him to the Rockets for pennies on the dollar. The Bucks blew up their successful season by trading for one of the least efficient players in the NBA (Michael Carter-Williams). Phoenix made a complete roster overhaul. And Detroit shuffled its lineup without sacrificing any essential pieces.<br />
<br />
Stan Van Gundy’s refrain for the previous month remained staunch: the Pistons will not sacrifice long-term goals for short-term gains. The team would not make a panic trade to get into the playoffs this season, nor would they sacrifice any young assets without receiving similar compensation. Despite the laughable Joe Johnson trade rumors, SVG approached the trade deadline with the intention of keeping Drummond, Monroe, KCP, and Dinwiddie together. He accomplished that while adding one intriguing piece and clearing space for the coming free agency period, in which the Pistons look to be a major factor.<br />
<br />
Gone are Kyle Singler, DJ Augustin, Jonas Jerebko, and Gigi Datome. In their stead come troubled Oklahoma City guard Reggie Jackson and living dinosaur Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons traded away flotsam that didn’t factor into the future for an upgrade at point guard and a stand-in small forward. The team may have gotten worse in the interim, but these moves create new opportunities for the free agency push this summer.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Basketball Things</span></b><br />
<br />
The on-court impact of these trades will probably be negative unless Reggie Jackson turns out to be a revelation. The depth chart:<br />
<br />
<center>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 640px;">
<!--StartFragment-->
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4821; mso-width-source: userset; width: 113pt;" width="113"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3114; mso-width-source: userset; width: 73pt;" width="73"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3968; mso-width-source: userset; width: 93pt;" width="93"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3840; mso-width-source: userset; width: 90pt;" width="90"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 4522; mso-width-source: userset; width: 106pt;" width="106"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#000099" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 113pt;" width="113"><b><span style="color: white;">PG</span></b></td>
<td style="width: 73pt;" width="73"><b><span style="color: white;">SG</span></b></td>
<td style="width: 93pt;" width="93"><b><span style="color: white;">SF</span></b></td>
<td style="width: 90pt;" width="90"><b><span style="color: white;">PF</span></b></td>
<td style="width: 106pt;" width="106"><b><span style="color: white;">C</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Reggie Jackson</td>
<td>KCP</td>
<td>Caron Butler</td>
<td>Monroe</td>
<td>Drummond</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">John Lucas III</td>
<td>Jodie Meeks</td>
<td>Tayshaun</td>
<td>Tolliver</td>
<td>Joel Anthony</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Spencer Dinwiddie</td>
<td></td>
<td>Cartier Martin</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">(Brandon Jennings)</td>
<td></td>
<td>Quincy Miller</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table>
<hr size="1" width="640" />
</center>
<br />
The most glaring weakness remains small forward. The acquisition of Tayshaun Prince does little to fix the problems that the Pistons face at the position. Singler admirably filled a role he was unable to, and held off Butler, who had played his way out of the rotation, and Cartier Martin who has seen only spot duties since the beginning of the season. Tayshau--or more accurately, his expiring contract--is a cog in a greater scheme, about which more later.<br />
<br />
The loss of Datome will have a negligible impact on the team, but Jerebko's departure holds much more weight. The Pistons now only have four frontcourt players. Jerebko gave the Pistons flexibility and a consistent insurance policy. Drummond, prone to foul trouble, could be replaced by Monroe at center. Jerebko and Tolliver would platoon the power forward position and give SVG minutes from the bench that should be otherwise handled by Drummond. Without Jerebko, Tolliver and Joel Anthony will see more playing time. The former has acquitted himself this season as a floor spacer and reliable spot-up shooter. Anthony, however, appears barely functional at an NBA level. Foul trouble for Drummond--a certainty at this point--will force Anthony into major minutes.<br />
<br />
Jackson, the centerpiece of these trades, boasts a mercurial history. He has struggled to find a rhythm this year with injuries to Westbrook and Durant, and has been a not-so-quiet malcontent who wanted out of OKC. He comes to Detroit with significant upside but also questions about his ability to lead a team. Prone to taking ill-advised shots, Jackson's considerable talents were squandered by a coach that refused to understand them. Jackson possesses athleticism that the Pistons haven't had at the point guard position in a long time. He has scored the 20th most points this season on drives and averages 8.3 points per 48 minutes on drives. For reference, Augustin averages 7.7 points per 48 minutes on drives and Jennings averaged 7.2.<br />
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<table><tbody>
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</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<i>Jackson's (left) and Augustin's (right) shot charts</i></center>
<br />
The Pistons' offense has turned two different hit-or-miss point guards into terrors this season, and there's little reason to think Jackson won't see a notable bump in his production once he integrates into the offense. With his athleticism and pick-and-roll proficiency (he boasts a 50.6% eFG%, one spot ahead of James Harden, and has a low TO% in pick-and-roll situations), SVG's system may unleash his potential. Jackson going supernova stands as the Pistons' clearest path to the playoffs, something which is inadvisable at this junction, though.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Free Agency</span></b><br />
<br />
What these trades garner for the Pistons is flexibility in the coming free agency period. At the end of the season, the Pistons will have just over $36 million on the books for '15-'16. The team may try to re-sign Monroe, who will require $15 million annually to stay in Detroit, or pursue Draymond Green, who would be an apt, SVG-approved replacement. Handing out a max deal to Monroe or Green would leave the Pistons with ~$15 million to fill out the rest of the roster. Bookmark $2-3 million for Detroit's first-round pick (with any luck, a small forward), and the Pistons would only need to shore up frontcourt depth. Of note, as well, is the $4.5 million team option on Caron Butler that may not be exercised depending on the team's draft haul and free agent moves.<br />
<br />
The Pistons will encounter some difficulty re-signing Jackson. Currently in the final year of his contract, Jackson has notoriously declined a $48M/4 year offer from the Thunder, a deal that comes in at the top of his market. Jackson is a restricted free agent, which allows the Pistons to match any offer, but he may not be worth matching. Jackson's worth hovers somewhere between $8-12 million annually, but if he's seeking significantly more than that, parting ways would be prudent. SVG will cross that bridge when he comes to it. Regardless of Jackson's free agency, Brandon Jennings remains on the roster for an affordable $8 million next season.<br />
<br />
The Pistons can't go crazy in free agency, however. Drummond will require a max extension following next season. Fortunately, only KCP, Dinwiddie, and Meeks are on the books for '16-'17. This summer will go a long way toward shaping the future of this franchise. I'd expect one or two splashy moves that position the team to contend for home-court advantage in the playoffs.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Tanking?</span></b><br />
<br />
An important question is whether or not the Pistons are low-key tanking now. Without making any moves, the Pistons could have snuck into the playoffs. Instead, SVG gutted the frontcourt depth, exchanged a deficient small forward for one that hasn't been a viable starter in years, and gambled on a high-risk, high-reward point guard. Meanwhile, the Pistons' primary playoff competition (Miami, Boston, and Brooklyn) all improved, which says nothing about Paul George's imminent return to the Pacers, who are also vying for a playoff spot. If SVG wanted plausible deniability for a tank campaign, today may prove pivotal.<br />
<br />
If the season ended today, the Pistons would hold the #10 pick barring some luck (good or bad). Indiana could overtake the Pistons with a successful return from George, and the Sacramento Kings could find cohesion under new head coach George Karl, bumping the Pistons further up the lottery draft board. The moves that SVG made today feel like a franchise willing to take some gambles now that, even if they fail, could pay dividends this summer. And for a team nowhere near contending, these are smart moves to make.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
----</div>
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QXx2DhVcP5I/VOaBi7t8-7I/AAAAAAAAFNE/UWQkAEdNxK0/s1600/svg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QXx2DhVcP5I/VOaBi7t8-7I/AAAAAAAAFNE/UWQkAEdNxK0/s1600/svg.jpg" height="426" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
With news that the Pistons just signed Quincy Miller to a 10-day contract, it's clear that the team will scrapbook its way to the end of the season and reassess later. Jackson could prove to be an excellent leader stuck in a previously crummy situation. He could also be a shoot-first hindrance that fractures the offensive system. SVG has earned the benefit of the doubt, and it will be exciting to see if Jackson can run this offense and whether or not he can be convinced to stay. Despite the hope instilled following the un-Smithening, the Pistons always needed a few more years to develop young talent and craft a roster that can compete nightly. Today's moves don't make them into that team, but they do lay the groundwork for the years ahead.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-59952179420167396082015-01-26T12:45:00.000-08:002015-01-26T12:45:34.333-08:00On Brandon Jennings and hope<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
I was watching the Orlando Magic play the Indiana Pacers over the weekend and thought to myself, "What if Victor Oladipo just becomes the new Rodney Stuckey." On paper, it makes sense: an explosive shooting guard drafted by a sub-par team to take over point guard duties. An organization wallowing in anonymity because of poor coaching and free agent moves ultimately shoves a talented player into a role he's uncomfortable with. Then I kept watching the game and Oladipo reminded me that he's more Dwayne Wade than Stuckey, that the Magic drafted Elfrid Payton whose ceiling is barely visible, and that Aaron Gordon just started his first game.<br />
<br />
Before the season, I lamented all of the stars (potential or otherwise) that currently reside in the Central division: Lebon, Love, Kyrie, George, Hibbert, David West, Rose, Wiggins, Jabari. And that's being cautious. Pau Gasol, Noah, and Jimmy Butler could also be thrown in the mix. Brandon Knight isn't terrible anymore. And then there's the Pistons. Andre Drummond made Team USA, which means something to some people. But Drummond hasn't played in the fourth quarter of the Pistons' last few games because he can't make free throws. The future looked hazy for the Pistons.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
----</div>
<br />
I didn't see the Brandon Jennings injury. In basketball terms, it means that DJ Augustin and Spencer Dinwiddie take over the point guard duties, the former a shoot-first microwave, the latter a rookie. What it means for the Pistons zeitgeist is more damaging. Jennings has been maligned and miscast throughout his career as a selfish, shoot-first point guard. Only one year in Jennings' career (his second) did he drop below the top 16 players in assists per game, this season coming in at 12th. His assist/turnover ratio is at 3.02, ninth in the league among qualified players, and behind the likes of JJ Barea and Andre Miller who play half of the minutes that he does. Jennings promised to live up to the lofty Natural Point Guard expectations when he came to Detroit, saying that a better group of teammates would allow him to blossom as a passer. Despite a horrible season for the franchise, Jennings posted career highs in assists per game (7.6) and assist rate (29.0) last season.<br />
<br />
Jennings' issues have always been his shot selection, finishing, and defense. The latter isn't changing, but Stan Van Gundy became his shepherd. Jennings is ball dominant, which is one of the reasons he's often thought of as being shoot-first. He sharpened his teeth in the Drew League after eschewing college for a short stint overseas. These pro-am leagues are notorious for shoddy defense and flashy offense, the kind of setting Jennings thrives in. Without an offense that could take advantage of Jennings' considerable talent, he struggled to find a niche in the NBA as a consistent player and winner, one of those nebulous terms like "grit" in football that people use to describe why a player performs as he does without the backing of any objective data. Van Gundy (and the loss of Josh Smith cannot be overstated) set Jennings free, putting the ball in his hands and allowing him to do his thing inside the structure of the offense. When Jennings wasn't screaming the ball up court, he was usually dribbling through walls of defenders and collapsing the defense, opening lanes for the Pistons' barrage of outside gunners. If he didn't have the ball in his hands, it was usually because it was floating softly toward the rim for a Drummond alley oop.<br />
<br />
<center>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Klkqb4tGw4c" width="560"></iframe></center>
<br />
Since the Great De-Smithening, Jennings had developed into the visage that he promised and that his game always alluded to. It was clear watching Jennings--and to a greater extent, the Pistons--that this is not the same team that has been crumbling since 2008. Jennings became a whirlwind, Drummond has a baby hook that works 100% of the time 38% of the time, the bench is filled with players that you'd see spelling starters on contenders, Greg Monroe emerged from his cocoon as a stumpy-armed butterfly. In essence, not another Rodney Stuckey.<br />
<br />
I realized while exhaustively live-Tweeting another Pistons game that this is why I bring up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope so often (sorry about that by the way). Detroit pre-Jennings injury was a good team and would have pushed for the 6th playoff spot in the East down the stretch, but to become anything more than what they are, KCP needs to turn into whatever demigod I've envisioned him to be. With Jennings firing on all cylinders and Drummond being Drummond, the Pistons needed a consistent outside threat that could also make up for some of the defensive inefficiencies in the lineup. Because for as good as Drummond is, barring huge improvements in his post-up game, it's hard to pinpoint where his ceiling might be. It's possible he's already there. It's equally likely that he develops into more of a terror. But KCP stands as a known entity, at least in regards to his ceiling.<br />
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Losing Jennings changes all of that. Augustin, despite his ability to score in bunches, has proven incapable of running this offense at a consistent, high level. Dinwiddie is a wild card, but tellingly, is a second-round pick. Losing Jennings for the rest of the season doesn't derail everything the team had going, but the hope that was building is stalled.<br />
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The Pistons' January 10th win over the Brooklyn Nets was the most important game this season. The team had just won seven straight games, a streak that was broken by the Atlanta Hawks. Smart people on the internet preached caution about swelling hope in the fanbase: Meeks won't continue shooting this well, Jennings will revert to the mean, the strength of schedule was low. Losing to a bad Nets team would seem to prove much of this right and swing the tide of momentum away from the Pistons. But that win, however meaningless, proved that this wasn't a fluke. Losing Jennings feels like that Nets game in perpetuity. How much of what we saw was real? Will the Pistons rise to those levels again? What does next season bring? And when Jennings returns, will a lower leg injury change how he plays the game?<br />
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I've always been sympathetic toward Jennings. I don't have a reason to be, but his game is visually pleasing: ball fakes, quick trigger dribbling, flashy passing, hot streaks (oh, the hot streaks). His development stood as the Pistons' fastest way to relevance. He looked comfortable for the first time on an NBA court, which was heartwarming. And while nine months is a long time to wait for an answer to whether or not Detroit will remain an up-and-coming franchise, it's difficult not to anticipate that they will following this last month.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-74464201820463740012015-01-07T10:08:00.001-08:002015-01-07T10:08:17.427-08:00A fucking wall<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-15340571475734139182015-01-07T01:04:00.000-08:002015-01-07T01:04:53.083-08:00We just form a fucking wall<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>This is the greatest picture ever taken</i></div>
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Stan Van Gundy's <a href="https://vine.co/v/OpWrIg5hVgJ" target="_blank">FCC blunder</a> will be the most remembered moment of the Pistons' last-second win against the San Antonio Spurs, moreso than Brandon Jennings' game winning shot. Add it to the growing list of Van Gundy-isms: the Diet Coke, the master of panic, the fucking wall. The sound bite will live on; the poetry will be lost. Forming a human wall is symbolic. There's a unity and strength behind a wall, something that Van Gundy didn't intend when he said it, but will stand as this team's rallying cry, at least amongst the hashtagging masses. Someone will sell "We just form a fucking wall" t-shirts by the afternoon.<br />
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There was a moment a few games after the Pistons released Josh Smith that typifies the difference in the team. Brandon Jennings was bringing the ball into the halfcourt and made an uncharacteristic turnover. The mistake didn't generate a fast break, so the Pistons sauntered back on defense. As they were crossing half court, Greg Monroe dapped Jennings as if to say, "Don't worry about it. We'll score the next time we have the ball."<br />
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There has been much written about the loss of Josh Smith from the Pistons' roster. Articles typically fall in one of two categories: the Pistons' sudden resurgence can realistically be attributed to a weak schedule and the emergence of Jodie Meeks as a consistent offensive threat, or Josh Smith was poison. I began writing about the Pistons because I genuinely like this collection of players. KCP is my favorite NBA player since I fell in love with the 2006 Denver Nuggets' Allen Iverson-led starting five (Iverson-JR Smith-Carmelo-Kenyon Martin-Marcus Camby, the best alley-oop lineup the NBA has ever seen). Andre Drummond is Andre Drummond, and that's a lot of fun. Will Bynum, a member of the team when this blog started, was always a fun microwave option.<br />
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Then the Pistons signed Brandon Jennings, a player best known for a game early in his rookie season and his endless Drew League highlights. Josh Smith came too. And I genuinely enjoyed watching them play, the former more than the latter. This season, Stan Van Gundy reignited my interest in Xs and Os that died shortly after John Kuester took the reins of the team last season. SVG made the best of a bad situation, turning Smith into a passing force and centering the offense on his ability to bend defenses. And I fought for Smith, because he's not a bad person and he's not a terrible basketball player. After a 6-0 streak following his dismissal, though, there are no arguments to be made. Smith was a cancer to this team, perhaps through no fault of his own other than taking the shots that he thought he could hit and would help the team. Or maybe he caused significant friction in the locker room. I imagine rumors leak out in the years to come, or Jalen Rose will let some insider information slip during a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYQK3VAUN9Y" target="_blank">Pop the Truck podcast</a>. Regardless, one thing is certain: the Pistons now hold the longest active winning streak in the NBA and are not a fluke.<br />
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The Pistons are replete with talent. They were last year as well, making the results disappointing, though not surprising given the team's leadership. The promise of Stan Van Gundy comes from his system and its <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/11/set-plays-leave-your-smoke-and-mirrors.html" target="_blank">replicability across talent and competition levels</a>. One of the stark differences in the Pistons since the removal of Smith has been the tendency to let the system run the offense, rather than calling plays. Throughout most of the season, the Pistons came down the floor, got into a specific set--usually called by SVG--and ran that play. Van Gundy needed to calls plays in this manner to avoid Smith going rogue. He clearly felt uncomfortable letting Smith loose in the offense. Without Smith, the team can run SVG's capitol-s System, the 4-out, 1-in (or thereabout) schemes that made Dwight Howard a world beater. Look no further than Drummond's numbers throughout the last few games for proof of this system's success.<br />
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From here, the Pistons can only get better. With a young core of players reinvigorated by the loss of Smith and a top-flight coach, the Pistons making the playoffs feels assured, barring injury. It's hard to watch the Pistons and not see where this team can go: Drummond realizing his potential, KCP developing into a legit 3&D player, Monroe occasionally hitting a hook shot, Jennings turning in the best season of his career, Meeks and Butler coming off the bench to add an offensive spark, Jonas Jerebko (of all people) looking like a sustainably functional player, and the league's best victory cigar in Joel Anthony's 3.6 blocks per 36 minutes. I've been saying it for days: when the Pistons beat the Spurs, people will have to pay attention. Now that they have, it's exciting to see where they'll go.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-69893378457704127342014-12-22T09:21:00.002-08:002014-12-22T09:21:27.489-08:00Pistons waive Josh Smith<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Mark this as a watershed moment for the franchise. The Pistons have waived much-maligned forward Josh Smith. Citing the team's performance, Stan Van Gundy has made the boldest move this franchise has seen since the Chauncey Billups trade. What this means is that Smith, given that he clears waivers in two days (he will), will be a free agent that can sign with any team. Smith had two years and $26 million left on his contract following this season, which will stay on the Pistons' payroll and salary.<br />
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SVG had done a lot to center the offense on Smith's passing abilities, moves that made him more effective than at any other time as a Piston. But obvious chemistry issues and his poor performance made even those schematic changes worthless. This signals a possible change in Monroe-SVG relations, which could have a significant impact this offseason. For now, the Pistons are woefully short on power forwards, with Monroe, Jonas Jerebko, and Tony Mitchell the only other PFs on the roster.<br />
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Player rotations will be important, but the most intriguing aspect of this move will be seeing how the players react. I've long held that the team doesn't look like they enjoy playing basketball. It's entirely possible that Smith was dragging team morale down. Look for energy levels in the coming games. That will tell us a lot about where this team was and where it can go from here.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-77330021775407201122014-12-15T14:43:00.001-08:002014-12-15T14:43:37.302-08:00Set Plays: Back screen from horns setIn spite of the Pistons' considerable issues this season, Stan Van Gundy has been living up to expectations. Some of that is evident: the Pistons are tied for 18th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 104.2 points per 100 possessions, up from 25th and 107.3, respectively, last season. The gains on defense are a direct result of SVG's defensive schemes and coherence. The offense, while it has performed worse than last season--some of which is SVG's fault (using Andre Drummond as a post player), though most of which is the fault of abhorrent shooting around the basket--has been expertly designed and tweaked.<br />
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Earlier this season, I <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/11/set-plays-shooting-guard-screens-for.html" target="_blank">diagrammed a play</a> that the Pistons were overusing, a screen set by the shooting guard on the block to get one of the post players deep position. The play was conceptually sound but not effective in practice. I concluded<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I'm cautiously optimistic that SVG is slowly implementing his schemes and making sure that the Pistons can execute what they've been assigned, but after 12 games, the lack of schematic development has been alarming. Patience is afforded, but SVG needs to start showing something new in the coming stretch of games before eyebrows are raised.</blockquote>
As the season has progressed, that patience has proven well-founded. SVG has continued to develop his early-season schemes and the offense has started to grow because of it. In Saturday's win against the Kings, the Pistons utilized the concepts of the above play in a more constructive method to generate easy looks at the rim.<br />
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Brandon Jennings brings the ball up the floor and the Pistons align in the horns set. Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, KCP, and Kyle Singler are on the floor for this instance, but the play will work with any two-big lineup.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dl8qCB3J3Ug/VI9Xio_AuDI/AAAAAAAAFKA/uhuFfOT39u0/s1600/hornsdownscreen1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dl8qCB3J3Ug/VI9Xio_AuDI/AAAAAAAAFKA/uhuFfOT39u0/s1600/hornsdownscreen1.jpg" height="592" width="640" /></a></div>
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Jennings immediately enters the ball to Monroe on the elbow and runs into the corner to screen KCP's defender.<br />
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KCP curls from the corner and into the lane. In the future, Monroe may have the option to pass it to KCP in the lane, but that wasn't built into the play design in this game.<br />
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Rather than cutting to the basket and looking for a pass from Monroe, KCP's job is to set a back screen on Smith's defender while Smith cuts through the lane.<br />
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Monroe now makes an entry pass to Smith who is on the move toward the rim and whose defender is in a trail position.<br />
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Smith's defender has to come from the opposite side of the paint. On this play, Smith pump faked to get his defender in the air to get an easy layup.<br />
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<b>Building blocks. </b>Having KCP set screens on power forwards early in the season always seemed like a fool's errand. He doesn't have the size or strength to set a quality screen on big men, and the play itself failed to produce consistent (or even above average results). In the resulting weeks, SVG has shifted the Pistons' offense from a post-centric outfit to a perimeter-oriented, pick-and-roll scheme. But having perimeter players set screens for the team's bigs will remain a feature of the offense, however, and it's encouraging to see SVG utilize these fundamentals in more effective ways.<br />
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<b>More Smith. </b>I've written before about <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/11/set-plays-leave-your-smoke-and-mirrors.html" target="_blank">Josh Smith's versatility</a> and SVG's decision to center the offense's pick and roll on him. The primary tenet of these schemes is to get Smith on the move rather than standing on the perimeter and taking shots. Though this play can be run with Drummond receiving the ball (and was a number of times in this game), Smith's skillset makes him dangerous in this scenario. If either corner defender leaves his man to help in the paint, Smith has the vision to find open shooters in the respective corner. Whether or not Smith becomes a consistently functional player on this roster or ends up traded, SVG will make lemonade when he has to.<br />
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<b>Systems take time.</b> Most consider the Pistons better than their record. The early parts of this season were a disaster, in large part because SVG's schemes are complex and take a long time to implement. Putting plays onto the court without establishing the baseline of their effectiveness is a recipe for incoherence. This is why <a href="http://www.nba.com/pistons/features/pistons-improvements-d-not-coming-fast-enough-please-svg" target="_blank">SVG says things like</a>, "I want to get them to run back on defense tomorrow in a scrimmage", you can be sure that's not just coachspeak. SVG is actually starting from the baseline with this team. Growing pains are to be expected, but as the season wears on, the team will have a better grasp on and more intuitive understanding of the schemes.<br />
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---</div>
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The Pistons cannot replay the first 24 games of this season in their current form. If they could, they would have more than 5 wins, of that I'm certain. The Vegas line before the season was 36.5 wins in a weak Eastern Conference. To hit the over, the Pistons would have to finish the season 32-26, a tall task but not out of the picture in the Eastern Conference. The Kings were without Demarcus Cousins, so take the last two wins with a grain of salt, but this may be the turn that the Pistons were bound to make. Salvaging this season carries the side effect of losing a high draft pick, but we'll cross that bridge if we come to it. For now, the Pistons are starting to develop into the team everyone expected at the beginning of the season. Anyway you look at it, that's a good thing.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-45017647793992322692014-12-10T11:18:00.000-08:002014-12-10T14:27:02.464-08:00Why Monroe and Drummond together isn't a long-term solution<i>Ed. note: All numbers in this post are according to <a href="http://nbawowy.com/" target="_blank">NBAwowy.com</a>.</i><br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T78QuKzipF0/VIiLuGlzCeI/AAAAAAAAFJY/jEPWes2MHlE/s1600/DrummondMonroe.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T78QuKzipF0/VIiLuGlzCeI/AAAAAAAAFJY/jEPWes2MHlE/s1600/DrummondMonroe.png" height="362" width="640" /></a></div>
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I have been strident that Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe can't play together. The Pistons do not necessarily play worse when the pairing shares the court. <a href="http://pistonpowered.com/" target="_blank">Piston Powered</a>'s Dan Feldman and I discussed this on Twitter yesterday: the Pistons have actually outscored opponents this season with Drummond and Monroe on the floor together without Josh Smith, albeit by a slim margin (prior to last night's game, the duo outscored opponents 118 to 101 through 109 possessions when on the floor together this season). The problem stands as a structural one, borne of the players' respective inability to step away from the basket on the offensive end of the floor.<br />
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The picture above is a moment from the Pistons' most recent thwacking at the hands of the Portland Trailblazers. It is a common scene: Greg Monroe has the ball on the right post while Brandon Jennings, KCP, and Caron Butler space the floor around the perimeter. Standing on the opposite side of the paint is Andre Drummond. This example is actually one of the more pedestrian occurrences of this issue. Drummond stands at the free throw line, a location at which he is ineffective. Chris Kaman only has to play token defense on Drummond, and can dedicate most of his attention to Monroe. After a baseline spin move, Monroe moves to the basket and is greeted by Kaman, who forces a difficult attempt:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DyxYtv9iJ-U/VIiPiQUC8sI/AAAAAAAAFJs/tPZtXK8qxE8/s1600/DrummondMonroe2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DyxYtv9iJ-U/VIiPiQUC8sI/AAAAAAAAFJs/tPZtXK8qxE8/s1600/DrummondMonroe2.png" height="362" width="640" /></a></div>
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Monroe makes this shot, the kind of circus layup that has sent his field goal percentage at the rim careening to the 48.9% that it stands at today. Monroe has never been an efficient finisher at the rim, but the level he's performing at currently is untenable and a function of Drummond's inability to step away from the rim. When Monroe is on the court without Drummond, his effective field goal percentage is at 52.6%. When the two are on the court together, Monroe's effective field goal percentage plummets to 42%.<br />
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The issue extends further than contested shots at the rim. Not only is Monroe taking worse shots when Drummond is on the court, he's taking different shots. Without Drummond on the court, Monroe takes 64% of his shots between 0-3 feet from the basket, and only 32.5% of his shots from 4-9 feet from the basket. With Drummond on the floor, Monroe's shot distribution becomes less effective: only 47.7% of Monroe's shots come from 0-3 feet, while 44.3% of his shots are taken from 4-9 feet.<br />
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The screenshots above illustrate why. Monroe understands that help defense will come from the opposing frontcourt players when Drummond is on the floor. The layup that he makes above is not a high-percentage attempt, but is the kind of shot that Monroe can generate when the two play together. Perhaps more telling is Drummond's effective field goal percentage when the two play together. Without Monroe on the floor, Drummond posts a 43.4% eFG% this season. However, when they're in the frontcourt together, Drummond's effective field goal percentage rises to 50%.<br />
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These shooting percentages are low for any big man in the league, but that's the status of the Pistons in 2014. What the numbers do show is a distinct picture of how these two play together. Drummond has always feasted off of missed shots and putbacks. With Monroe on the floor, Drummond has ample opportunity for these easy baskets. Since Monroe's shot selection rarely extends beyond 10 feet, rebounds likely won't bounce further than Drummond can reach and return to the rim quickly. Meanwhile, Drummond's mere presence forces Monroe into worse shots. They're magnets being pressed together, like poles repelling one other.<br />
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Though problems with his game abound, Josh Smith stands as an integral part of Stan Van Gundy's schemes. Smith's dreaded mid-range shots are a necessary evil of the Pistons' post-up offense. The issue is not the shot, it's that Smith isn't Kevin Garnett. SVG's schemes require a stretch power forward for the reasons outlined above. Without the ability to extend the defense between them, Monroe and Drummond will occupy the same court space and find success from the failures that they're causing in one another. I am not advocating that Smith takes more midrange shots--I'm excited by the shift to a high <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/11/set-plays-leave-your-smoke-and-mirrors.html" target="_blank">pick-and-roll offense SVG uses</a> with Smith as the roll man--and get just as frustrated when Smith heaves ill-fated long jumpers. But Monroe and Drummond together detract from one another, causing the Pistons to run in place rather than develop as a young, talented group should.<br />
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SVG seems to have noticed the same phenomenon. This is the reason Monroe comes off the bench to start games and why Monroe replaces Drummond rather than Smith at the first substitution. In recent weeks, SVG has worked to keep Monroe and Drummond separated, only playing the two together when the team's regular rotation struggles to generate any offense. This Pistons roster is broken, but Stan Van Gundy capitol-G, capitol-I Gets It.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-52226208253585398452014-12-08T11:01:00.003-08:002014-12-08T11:01:46.970-08:00Pistons lose to 76ers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-42722052596974333882014-12-01T09:26:00.000-08:002014-12-01T09:26:46.187-08:00Player rotations are hard<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The last two games have seen the Pistons' biggest rotation changes that Stan Van Gundy has shown this season. They've also been outright disasters, but for different reasons and only occasionally because of the roster changes. Before the season began, SVG planned to bring Greg Monroe off the bench, but injuries to Jodie Meeks and Cartier Martin forced Josh Smith into the small forward position. Several moderately successful schematic changes later, the Pistons are still only 3-14 and stuck in a rut.<br />
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On Friday, the Pistons played the Bucks. Seven minutes into the first quarter, SVG pulled Andre Drummond, who has been sat that early in games before, but never without significant foul trouble. Something was afoot:<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Minutes make sense this way, but interesting that SVG is letting Drummond anchor this second unit to start the 2Q<br />
— Chris Gaerig (@cgaerig) <a href="https://twitter.com/cgaerig/status/538499456287514625">November 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
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What followed was one of the Pistons' worst performances to date. Brandon Jennings' absence due to a dislocated thumb should not be understated, but the Pistons' second unit was one of the worst groupings the team has ever put on the floor. Detroit actually won the 1st and 3rd quarters, the two in which the starting rotation played primarily. But the 2nd and 4th quarters, each which opened with the Drummond-led second unit, were devastating. The Pistons lost the 2nd quarter 16-28, and the 4th quarter 19-30. The highest plus-minus of any bench player was -14. The <i>lowest</i> of any starter was -2. Things were so bad with the second unit--one issue was the Bucks playing Giannis Antetokounmpo at center, something Detroit's bigs were ill-equipped to deal with--that SVG chose a frontcourt of Smith and Jonas Jerebko, a pairing that, to my knowledge, hasn't played together this year.<br />
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It's not often that I feel compelled to turn off a Pistons game, but watching the team against the Bucks nearly forced me to. The team looked so dysfunctional on the defensive end of the floor that it was hard to believe 15 games had already passed this season. I believe that the Pistons are starting to put things together. SVG has <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/11/set-plays-leave-your-smoke-and-mirrors.html" target="_blank">solved the Josh Smith problem</a>, using him as the roll man in pick-and-roll situations and generating open shots. He has also improved Drummond's off-ball defense and rediscovered what made the big man so effective the previous two seasons (playing as a weakside offensive rebounder). Things aren't going well, but SVG shows high-level tactical thinking and, once he has the team that he had a hand in building (Jodie Meeks' return looms large, as does Cartier Martin's continued health and improvement), this season's outlook should revert to the preseason mean.<br />
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Last night's game against the Warriors was a case of a good team playing a bad team. Despite shooting 36.3% from the field against the Warriors, the Pistons hung in the game throughout. The most important development of the game was SVG learning from his mistake against the Bucks and changing the lineup back to the preseason intention: Josh Smith and Andre Drummond in the frontcourt with KCP, Jennings, and Singler; bringing Monroe off the bench as a go-to scorer for the second unit. This rotation makes the most sense for this roster. Drummond and Smith complement each other well, able to inhabit different areas of the court both offensively and defensively. Monroe, meanwhile, is best offensively when he can be featured on the block, something that is problematic with Drummond unable to stretch the floor at all. Unfortunately, this happened:<br />
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That performance around the rim happened in part because Andrew Bogut is an exceptional rim protector, but it points to an ongoing issue with the Pistons' bigs: they're terrible around the rim. My least favorite thing that happens on any basketball court is players complaining to the refs for a foul call. It's something that Monroe does dozens of times per game. Drummond and Smith have begun doing so as well. The team believes they deserve more calls than they're getting, and they might, but this team appears to have a reputation among refs. They're not going to get calls. So when the team gets a 12-32 performance from their big men (Smith 6-18, Drummond 1-8, Monroe, 5-12), it may be because they're not getting enough calls. More likely, it's because they're bad at finishing around the rim.<br />
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Smith is struggling because he has lost a step offensively. He looks slower than he did in the prime of his career, and that's to be expected. Drummond has been terrible this season for reasons unknown, but has shown improvement in the last few weeks. Monroe, however, has been awful around the rim for most of his career. In Monroe's entire career, he's never shot better than 58.9% around the rim. According to NBA.com, that mark was only marginally higher than league average that season (his rookie year):<br />
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Monroe's inability to finish at the rim remains the worst aspect of his game. Having a traditional post-up big man that's not efficient or even notably above league average at the rim is the surest way to drive an offense into the ground. Monroe never developed a reliable face-up game, and his finishing ability remains problematic for a player of his skill. I am not implying that Monroe is responsible for that Warriors game shot chart, nor that he's the culprit for the Pistons' long-term problems, but he's a major factor and contributed to the team's issues around the rim.<br />
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The consistency issues that the Pistons face do not lie solely on Smith or (unfairly this season) on Jennings. The team has problems almost across the board, with only KCP proving to be the team's consistent performer. In spite of his <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/11/what-did-you-expect.html" target="_blank">2-16 start from behind the arc</a>, KCP has improved his outside shooting percentage to 36.4% (40.9% if you excise his first three, knee-recovery games)*. In addition to his NBA Defensive Team-caliber defense, KCP has quietly become a consistent threat on the offensive end.<br />
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Consistency is an expected problem on a team this young, though, and it's SVG's job to both coach the players on mechanical problems and develop systems that they feel comfortable in. The Bucks game notwithstanding--and it should hardly count against Detroit; few opponents will be able to play a 6'11" small forward at center--SVG has shown a willingness to experiment with what brings an individual's skillset in line with how the team performs. Having already solved two of the most difficult roster pieces, it should not take much more time before he has a playbook that works for the entire team. At this point, the losses are as beneficial as the (hypothetical) wins. The Pistons are learning and SVG is learning with them. It is only a matter of time before they figure it out.<br />
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* A note about KCP's play that I think is important to watch: where he catches the ball on catch-and-shoot attempts. I struggled to find what was wrong with his shooting stroke for most of this season, but it dawned on me during the Bucks game that he needs to receive the ball high in his shooting stance to hit outside shots with consistency. When he has to reach down to grab the ball and begin his shot from a crouched position, he invariably misses. But if he receives the ball near his chest, his shot is much more effective. With Smith as the roll man who usually makes passes to the perimeter, this can be a problem. In spite of Smith's exceptional passing acumen, he's still prone to throwing low passes. He will need to improve the accuracy of those driving kick outs for KCP to take the next step.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-3145054350288865002014-11-24T09:00:00.000-08:002014-11-24T09:00:00.724-08:00Set Plays: Leave your smoke and mirrors at home<table><tbody>
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From this point forward, it will be easy to tell a Pistons' player's shot chart by looking at the shot distribution. Above are the shot charts of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Caron Butler. You can probably tell which one is KCP's by the color, but the indicator is actually the number of shots each has taken from the respective corners: KCP has taken 16 shots in the left corner and only 6 in the right, while Butler has taken 16 shots from the right corner and only 1 from the left. Stan Van Gundy has structured his offense in line with modern offensive thinking: not only do you spread the floor consistently, but you do so while assigning specific corners to distinct perimeter players. Not only does this increase rhythm and comfort for those shooters, but it also allows your offense to implement counters to established plays.<br />
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This schematic design dawned on me while watching the Pistons lose yet another winnable game on Friday against the Atlanta Hawks. KCP had another terrible shooting game, proving he can't hit shots with defenders in his proximity. Brandon Jennings was injured during a decent, if lackluster, performance. And DJ Augustin almost sealed the loss when he came in for Jennings and shot 4-17 from the field while charting only 1 assist. In spite of all of this, it was foul trouble for Greg Monroe that illuminated the Pistons' best offensive sets of the season and showed why he was coming off the bench to begin the season.<br />
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Josh Smith led the team in assists, which was not a mistake. With Monroe on the bench for the majority of the first half, the Pistons were finally able to unleash an offensive structure that was sustainable and effective. The Pistons trailed by 19 in the third quarter but, by running nearly the same offensive set every time down the floor, they were able to tie the game early in the fourth quarter.<br />
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The set begins with KCP in the left corner and Butler in the right. Andre Drummond is positioned on the baseline near the basket, while Smith and Jennings (or as was the case for much of the fourth quarter, Augustin) run a high pick and roll.<br />
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When Jennings comes off the screen, he has a few options. If his defender goes under the screen and the power forward doesn't show hard, he is free to shoot a three pointer. If his defender follows him over the screen, he begins to probe the lane and looks for a pocket pass to Smith.<br />
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This is where Smith becomes a lethal offensive player. With the ball at the top of the key and his defender on his hip, he has free rein to attack the basket. But Smith's elite passing skills make him uniquely suited to run this play. Once he starts moving toward the basket, the defense is in a bind. The nearside perimeter defender has to decide either to stay on the shooter in the corner or cut off the lane (in this game, this defender usually crashed into the lane, which resulted in Smith leading the team in assists):<br />
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If the perimeter defender does stay in the corner, the next read for Smith is to see if the opposing center remains on Drummond or helps in the lane.<br />
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The most promising part of this offensive attack is that it's sustainable. It reliably garners inside shots for Detroit's frontcourt players and/or open looks for the shooters. SVG's insistence on signing a plethora of shooters makes more sense when you see plays like this run consistently. The problem becomes that this play is impossible with Drummond, Monroe, and Smith on the floor together. With Monroe on the bench with foul trouble, the Pistons ran scant few post ups, a play that has been only moderately effective this season, instead opting for a more modern pick-and-roll attack. The question now, as it was before the season began, is whether or not SVG will consistently bring Monroe off the bench. If the results from this game are any indication, he might have to.<br />
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<b>Ignore the man behind the shot chart.</b> OK, so the elephant in the room: the Pistons shot only 37.3% during this game, including an ugly 4-21 mark from beyond the arc.<br />
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Part of the shooting woes came from Augustin shooting 4-17 (excising his shots entirely improves the team's shooting percentage by 4%). KCP's 1-7 didn't help any, and his 0-2 from the left corner--which stand out like beacons on the shot chart--hindered the offense as well. But that shot distribution is spectacular. Those Xs in the paint will turn into makes as the team becomes more comfortable with the offense and when they're not playing a team with two bigs as skilled as Horford and Millsap. Generating that shot chart is not easy, but it was accomplished largely through the scheme above.<br />
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<b>This is not 4-out, 1-in.</b> The much ballyhooed offensive system that SVG ran in Orlando with Dwight Howard is dead in Detroit for now, as is the idea that Drummond is a reliable post option. It is no accident that Drummond had his best game of the season against the Hawks: 13 points on 5-12 shooting, 16 rebounds (7 offensive, see the scheme above), 1 steal, 1 block, and only 1 personal foul. While Drummond often gets into foul trouble because of shoddy defense, he also often picked up bad offensive fouls by being overly aggressive on the boards or in the post. When Drummond was asked to stand on the weakside and clean up open putbacks, his numbers looked like those that earned him a roster spot on Team USA.<br />
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More importantly, it appears that SVG has finally given up the idea that Drummond should be developed in-game. I have no doubt that posting Drummond will become a more prominent aspect of the offense next season, but for now, it appears as though SVG will run a perimeter-oriented, pick-and-roll offense.<br />
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<b>SVG is smart. Josh Smith can be good.</b> Van Gundy has always praised Josh Smith's passing ability, arguably his most effective offensive skill. Following the last game in which SVG and Smith had a verbal altercation prompting Smith's benching, Smith noted that he needed to find a way to integrate himself into the offense. SVG has developed a system that centers on Smith's passing ability, both getting him more involved in (and motivated by) the gameplan while taking advantage of his passing skills. There are few power forwards in the league that are able to make the accurate, correct kick out passes that Smith does. The other benefit of putting the ball in Smith's hands as he moves toward the basket is that it limits his midrange jumpers. Smith's inclination to shoot long 2s is nurtured by an offense that has him stand on the perimeter and catch the ball with his defender sagging. When he's given the ball with a head of steam, his offensive game expands and he becomes less of an offensive hazard.<br />
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<b>Brandon Jennings is essential. </b>I do not like DJ Augustin. He is a prototypical over-dribbling ball stopper. This play emphasizes what I dislike about his play. Augustin struggles getting into the lane with the purpose of creating for his teammates. As the fourth quarter progressed, it was clear that the Pistons were going to lose because he couldn't get Smith the ball in the correct position, ruining the spacing of the scheme. I have been critical of Jennings' pick-and-roll game in the past, specifically because I thought he over dribbled and failed to create for his teammates. But this season has seen a dramatic shift in his pick-and-roll proficiency. Part of this has to do with SVG's schemes; an underrated aspect of Van Gundy's talent is his point guard development. Anyone who can turn Rafer Alston and Jameer Nelson into every day starters has something going for him.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-5677558816907053842014-11-21T15:06:00.000-08:002014-11-21T15:06:53.119-08:00Set Plays: Shooting guard screens for low post positionTo my eyes, the Pistons have run one set play more than any other this season. It is designed to get deep post position for one of the Pistons' frontcourt players, typically Greg Monroe, and while it usually accomplishes this, it puts other strains on the Pistons offense and emphasizes the personnel issues at play with Detroit's lineup.<br />
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The play happens almost exclusively on the right side of the floor. Brandon Jennings brings the ball up the court and stops at the the break on the right. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Greg Monroe are typically bunched together in the lane with KCP further from the basket. Drummond is positioned on the weakside of the court and Josh Smith is usually a floor spacer on the opposite wing.<br />
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The play begins with Monroe setting a down screen for KCP in the lane. KCP always uses the screen and dives to the basket before turning toward the right corner.<br />
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Rather than using this screen to any effect, KCP stops before leaving the paint and sets a screen on Monroe's defender while Monroe slides into deep post position.<br />
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Once Monroe is through the screen, KCP immediately runs to the weakside corner. Jennings now enters the ball into the post for Monroe who is free to attack as he sees fit. Jennings and Smith will occasionally dive through the lane, but Drummond stays planted to the weakside of the paint.<br />
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The theory behind this play is excellent:<br />
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<li>achieve low post position for an excellent post player</li>
<li>potentially get a switch for said post player</li>
<li>space the floor with KCP</li>
<li>have Drummond available for offensive rebounds or outlet passes if a double team comes from the opposing center</li>
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In reality, this play presents the Pistons with far more problems that it does advantages.<br />
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<b>The shot clock.</b> The Pistons are one of the slowest teams in the NBA, which is not an inherently bad decision. They have an excellent post player in Monroe who, when given time to operate, is an exceptional passer for his position and can attack his defender with a number of post moves. A persistent problem with the Pistons' offense this season is that they don't actually get into these sets until only 10 seconds are left on the shot clock. By the time Jennings brings the ball beyond the timeline, there are typically only 17-20 seconds left on the shot clock. KCP and Monroe must then get into the proper position, and KCP is asked to set a solid screen on a player several inches taller and dozens of pounds heavier than him. He's rarely very effective for obvious reasons, so the painted area becomes a garbled mess of players that Jennings would be stupid to pass the ball into. It's only when Monroe is finally set that he can receive the ball. With the shot clock hovering around 10 seconds at this point, Monroe has to rush his offense and can't properly manipulate the defense.<br />
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<b>The switch never happens.</b> One of the potential benefits of this set play is to get a switch in the post. Having Monroe matched up with a shooting guard in the low post seems like a guaranteed basket or at least a way to force the defense to over help. The problem is, because of the aforementioned clogging of the lane and KCP's reasonable inability to set a solid pick on a power forward, the Pistons never get the ball to Monroe in time to force the defense to switch. In addition, KCP running to the weakside corner gives the shooting guard time to recover and doesn't stress the power forward. Having KCP run to the top of the key might be a good counter to this setup, and one that requires the opposing big man to follow a shooter to the perimeter.<br />
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<b>The spacing doesn't really work.</b> If the Pistons run this set with their starting five, the spacing doesn't work. It forces Smith to the perimeter where he has to act as an outside shooter. KCP in the weakside corner is cut off by Drummond's defender. Occasionally Drummond will drift to the top of the key in order to open a skip pass to KCP, but that's a dangerous pass for Monroe and makes Drummond's presence far less intimidating.<br />
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<b>There's no other action.</b> One of the problems with Loyer and Cheeks last year was that they didn't design enough action off the ball. This creates the same issue: the Pistons are running a play to isolate Monroe. Worse, they're isolating him with limited time on the shot clock. Once Monroe receives the ball, the Pistons stand and wait for him to make his move. Why not have Smith set a pin down screen for KCP to curl back into the lane? Why not have Drummond set screens at the top of the key for Smith or Jennings? There are plenty of options that aren't being executed right now. Perhaps Stan Van Gundy has these in his toolbox and is rolling them out slowly, but this play seems willfully prohibitive.<br />
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Van Gundy has brought precious little in the way of advanced schemes this season. What he has shown has been more coherent than anything the Pistons have run in the previous seasons, but whether the problem is that the players not executing or the schemes putting the team in bad positions, a problem still exists. I'm cautiously optimistic that SVG is slowly implementing his schemes and making sure that the Pistons can execute what they've been assigned, but after 12 games, the lack of schematic development has been alarming. Patience is afforded, but SVG needs to start showing something new in the coming stretch of games before eyebrows are raised.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-31612149779146362342014-11-19T09:00:00.000-08:002014-11-19T09:34:48.497-08:00What did you expect?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I don't think you like Josh Smith. Most people who read Detroit Pistons blogs do not like Josh Smith. And it's difficult to blame them. For his career, Smith has been a complicated, everyman power forward. This year, you can add "mostly incompetent" to that string of adjectives.<br />
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My brother went to see the Pistons play the Bulls in Chicago this year. He sent me three text messages toward the end of the game:<br />
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The Pistons have been unexpectedly bad this season. Stan Van Gundy was supposed to save the team, and though a string of injuries has thrown the roster into question and Andre Drummond has looked like a shell of his former self, this Pistons team appears broken in my systematic ways. Much of this is being dumped on Josh Smith. It's probably Stan Van Gundy's fault.<br />
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What did we honestly expect when it was announced that SVG was going to start a frontcourt of Smith, Drummond, and Greg Monroe? Barring unforeseen improvement in his jump shot, the problems that plagued Smith last season were bound to return. Van Gundy does not have the panacea for a lineup with three players who probably shouldn't venture outside of 10 feet from the hoop. And trying to cram the three of them in the paint together is ripe for high comedy (see: last year).<br />
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Smith shot chart from '13-'14
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Smith shot chart from '14-'15
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Smith has been criticized once again for taking too many long jumpers, but take a look at his '14-'15 shot chart (right). Smith has taken only 20 three pointers through the first 11 games this season. His long 2s have even been reduced: he is taking 57.7% of his shots from inside of 10 feet according to NBA.com. And yet he's shooting only 42.6% from inside 10 feet this season.<br />
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Smith isn't entirely at fault for this awful shooting percentage. This season, Smith averages 5.3 FGA within 5 feet of the basket, and hits 50% of them. The only small forwards with more attempts within 5 feet of the basket than Smith this season are Tyreke Evans (9.6 FGA), Lebron James (8.2), Tobias Harris (6.9), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (5.4); Jimmy Butler is tied with Smith at 5.3 FGA. You may notice something with all of these players, with the exception of Lebron whose status as a small forward is questionable: all of them play with a big man who can reliably step away from the paint. Anthony Davis, Channing Frye, Ersan Ilyasova/Jabari Parker, and Pau Gasol are all players that can step away from the hoop and command respect from the defense.<br />
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Meanwhile, between 5-9 feet from the basket, only Joe Johnson averages as many FGA as Smith does amongst small forwards and power forwards (3.5). Smith is shooting a putrid 30.8%, incidentally the same shot percentage as Greg Monroe, who averages 2.9 FGA from that range (good for the 4th most attempts amongst forwards).<br />
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The point is this: despite changing his shot distribution for the better (last season, he took 55.5% of his shots from the free throw line in; this season he's taking 62.5%, in addition to significantly less three pointers), Smith is still struggling largely because it's difficult for small forwards to operate around the basket, especially with two traditional bigs. When Smith posts up, something that has become a staple of the Van Gundy offense, he's often surrounded by opposing bigs who aren't pulled away from the rim by Monroe or Drummond.<br />
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The counter argument here is that Smith isn't exclusively on the floor with Monroe and Drummond. The three have started the season together and typically close games, with the exception of the last two or three when Drummond has been benched in crunch time. However, Smith's shooting percentage by quarter reflects this: 37.9%, 37.5%, 41.5%, and 27.6% respectively. Those could be rose-colored glasses though. It's entirely possible that Smith is in the not-so-glamorous twilight of his career and doesn't have the legs to start or finish strong. (The reality probably falls somewhere between these ideas.) However, Smith looks more aggressive than ever, attacking the basket and using his athleticism to create for others.<br />
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The real secret is that the Pistons are actually not shooting terribly from outside this season.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Pistons get 26.4% of points from 3, 6th in NBA. And their best 3-point shooter (Meeks) has yet to play. Last year, 27th in that category.<br />
— Keith Langlois (@Keith_Langlois) <a href="https://twitter.com/Keith_Langlois/status/534780771865608193">November 18, 2014</a></blockquote>
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While they're not shooting the lights out, that <a href="http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/team/440/detroit-pistons/" target="_blank">shot chart</a> shows that the Pistons are hovering somewhere around league average in most outside zones. The problems that the team encounters are somewhere inside. So yeah, it's the <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2013/08/how-bad-are-future-pistons-spacing.html" target="_blank">spacing issue</a> again.<br />
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I drive the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope bandwagon. And while he's been (generously called) inconsistent this season, his numbers are actually a lot more positive when you do a little digging. If you excise the first three games of the regular season, when KCP was recovering from a nasty knee strain, he starts looking like a more competent and viable go-to option. In those first three games, KCP shot 2-16 from outside and looked generally moribund on offense. But the follow 8 games, he's shooting 18-44 (40.9%). He still has stinkers too often--0-4 against Memphis, 1-6 against Oklahoma City--but generally speaking, KCP has been a threat from outside. Meanwhile, the rest of the team's outside shooting has been impressive: Brandon Jennings, 47.1%; Caron Butler, 40.5%; Jonas Jerebko, 36.8%; Kyle Singler, 40.6%. Only DJ Augustin, at 22.6%, has been a consistently poor shooter from the three point line.<br />
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With the Pistons playing exceptionally slow basketball (they are 25th in pace this season), Stan Van Gundy is generating most of these struggles himself. While issues abound with using Andre Drummond as a constant post player, the real trouble comes by shoehorning Smith into the same role he proved incapable of playing last season. When you watch the Pistons, they do so many things well but eventually fall apart, which typically happens when the opposition starts playing to the Pistons' self-made weaknesses. The issue is that Cartier Martin, Jodie Meeks, Jerebko, or Singler don't project as competent small forwards, a limitation of the Pistons' roster. If the Pistons ever do move toward a more coherent offensive lineup full time, that would require KCP to play small forward, a conceit that would sacrifice size on the defensive end. But at some point, Van Gundy needs to make a change. He's banging his head against a the same wall that Mo Cheeks and John Loyer did. What did he expect to happen?Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-26677344068882824442014-11-04T14:06:00.000-08:002014-11-04T14:06:15.521-08:00Resting bitchface<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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There was a moment in the third quarter of the Pistons' 102-90 loss to the depleted Brooklyn Nets that sticks out more than any of the more meaningful events of the game. Andre Drummond received the ball near the bucket and laid it in, as he's wont to do, drawing a foul in the process. He shrieked "And one" and generally looked angry. It was the first passion I've seen from a Pistons player all season and it dawned on me: this team doesn't like playing basketball.<br />
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A general lack of on-court passion stands as an inherent problem in developing a program based on hard-nosed Goin' To Work players. Ben Wallace was known to be one of the most quiet players in the NBA. Chauncey Billups was the consummate Professional, a term loaded with safe, white suburban fan favorite sentiment. It wasn't until the Pistons acquired the outlandish Rasheed Wallace that they finally reach the pinnacle of the league. It wasn't Rasheed's attitude that won the Pistons a title, but his presence was a constant on that team. He wanted to beat everyone and make them realize it was happening. The Pistons played differently when 'Sheed was on the floor.<br />
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This current Pistons iteration is lacking character. Josh Smith is outspoken, but his play fluctuates between high-energy impact plays and resting bitchface as he takes endless long jumpers. Greg Monroe's most prominent personality trait is complaining to the referees (a symptom that's infected far too much of the team). KCP and Kyle Singler might as well be cardboard cutouts. Only Brandon Jennings has any character and flair in his game, but that manifests itself as flashy passes, rather than anything a team can glom onto.<br />
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Worse still, this team doesn't look like it enjoys playing together. Monroe has been a curmudgeon since Smith arrived last year, and it's likely that his lack of interest has spread to other corners of the locker room. Drummond appears too nice for his own good. Though big men have a reputation for being gregarious, Drummond never looks interested in or motivated to take over a game. KCP has attempted to add some flair to the Pistons' offense this season and a passion for winning, but that generally ends in airballs and ill-advised shots. Once again, Jennings' character feels like the Pistons' rallying cry, but with SVG sitting the point guard for the majority of the first two games, the team has struggled behind the shoot-first mentality of DJ Augustin; if there's one thing you don't want with Smith and KCP on the roster it's a shoot-first mentality.<br />
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All of which might be a roundabout way of saying that the Pistons don't have a go-to player on either end of the floor. KCP is the only individual defender that would be considered NBA caliber, but his struggles on the offensive end render him a problematic player to keep on the floor. On offense, Greg Monroe is the closest thing the Pistons have to a go-to guy, but he needs to be set up in the post, something he's never been exceptional at. And so you have a basketball team without an identity, regardless of the schemes SVG is trying to implement. The Pistons mope around the court without any idea how they're supposed to act. This is often the problem with young teams: one of the inexperienced players becomes the model for the team's persona. The Pistons don't have anyone with the kind of spirit that you hope will lead a team, and so it has gravitated toward the soft-spoken demeanor of its biggest star.<br />
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Just once, I'd like to see someone during a game take accountability for how the team is playing. Much as Smith is maligned for taking too many (bad) shots, he's always being given the ball in these situations. It's not as if he's demanding the ball and then taking terrible shots. SVG is trying to force Drummond into this role, but that has resulted in the big man shooting the worst percentage of his career (48.5%) on the highest number of attempts in three seasons (11.0)--which says nothing about how poorly he plays on the defensive end. Andre Drummond is not going to be that guy.<br />
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Perhaps if the Pistons were winning, this wouldn't be a problem. But they haven't been winning for years, and their leaders have been: Drummond (2014), Drummond/Stuckey (2013), Stuckey/Calderon/Monroe? (2012), Ben Gordon/Monroe? (2011), and the list goes on. The closest thing the Pistons have to an alpha player is Smith, whose performance is cratering potential wins and who has never been a team leader in the first place (a major emphasis behind him coming to Detroit). Jennings stands as the Pistons' only driver of character, but with a rift between he and SVG, his style likely won't have the impact on the roster that it should.<br />
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The schemes and shooting will come around. The Pistons likely won't be a top-flight three-point shooting team, but they also won't finish the season shooting 21.9% from beyond the arc. But for this team to excel, they actually need to find an identity. Unless Drummond can continue to show some semblance of passion, it's unclear where that's going to come from.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-85762425212097114042014-10-31T10:58:00.000-07:002014-10-31T10:58:52.838-07:00Confirmation Bias<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_DT_MqhDmhk/VFO_0RXNtKI/AAAAAAAAFD4/RLt4SDqpIWI/s1600/DJ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_DT_MqhDmhk/VFO_0RXNtKI/AAAAAAAAFD4/RLt4SDqpIWI/s1600/DJ.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
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A mental exercise. Identify the player and season:<br />
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<hr size="1" />
<b>Player A:</b> 34.1 MPG, 15.5 PPG, 37.3% FG (33.7% 3FG), 3.1 RPG, 7.6 APG, 2.7 TO<br />
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<b>Player B:</b> 30.5 MPG, 17.5 PPG, 39.3% FG (27.3% 3FG), 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.5 TO<br />
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<b>Player C:</b> 17.5 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 50.0% FG (NA), 3.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.5 TO<br />
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A lot has been made of DJ Augustin's play in this young season. Stan Van Gundy went as far as saying that Augustin was playing better than Jennings. I disagree, and believe that much of the fan/blog outcry about how good Augustin has been (and how bad Jennings and Smith have been) is pent up anger about last year and overwhelming confirmation bias. To wit:<br />
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<hr size="1" />
<b>'13-'14 Jennings:</b> 34.1 MPG, 15.5 PPG, 37.3% FG (33.7% 3FG), 3.1 RPG, 7.6 APG, 2.7 TO<br />
<hr size="1" />
<b>'14-'15 Augustin:</b> 30.5 MPG, 17.5 PPG, 39.3% FG (27.3% 3FG), 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.5 TO<br />
<hr size="1" />
<b>'14-'15 Jennings:</b> 17.5 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 50.0% FG (NA), 3.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.5 TO<br />
<hr size="1" />
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Augustin's performance this season is, by most objective measures, worse than Brandon Jennings' season last year. Further, Jennings has reduced his poor shot selection (through two games, he hasn't taken a single three pointer), is generating the same amount of offense via the pass in half the time (in 61 minutes, Augustin has accounted for 9 assists; Jennings has 8 assists in 35 minutes), and has not looked like a worse defender than Augustin, who, last night especially, was a turnstile. This is where three words matter: Small Sample Size. But regardless, it's hard to argue for Augustin right now as the superior point guard.<br />
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The Pistons' offense, which has stagnated through two games, is being run by a shoot-first point guard who has taken 20 of his 28 shots from beyond 10 feet. This is not how you win basketball games. The Pistons have not won basketball games.<br />
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Augustin is not solely to blame for the Pistons' disappointing start. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, long the favorite of this blog, has been terrible through two games. His defensive impact has been significant, especially above replacement--Caron Butler--which has been nonexistent on that end of the floor. But KCP's offense, something that's badly needed on this team, has been a detriment. Coming off of a knee strain can do that to players, especially athletic jump shooters, but KCP's issues around the basket persist and don't appear to be letting up. He's simply not very good at taking contact or finishing at the rim, a perplexing issue for a player who should be able to get there with regularity.<br />
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Meanwhile, the team's anchor, Andre Drummond, has been atrocious in his first two games. He's shooting a putrid 41.7% from the field. Worse, he's averaging one foul every 5.27 minutes. Drummond can't stay on the floor, is being bulldozed on the defensive end, and has been shooting 20% worse than any time in his career. Oh, and his free throw shooting hasn't improved.<br />
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And then there's Josh Smith, who looks like middle-of-the-road Josh Smith. He's the reason the Pistons weren't blown out in the first game, but pretty awful in game two. Smith is still a player capable of incredible highs and consistent disappointment. But if you buy into Kenneth Faried's antagonizing, you're probably looking for reasons to bury Smith in the first place.<br />
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This is not the team we were promised. Or perhaps it is with flawed personnel (for example, Joel Anthony cannot play professional basketball anymore). Greg Monroe will be a sight for sore eyes when he makes his debut tomorrow. But his presence won't fix all of the other glaring problems with this team. It takes time to implement a system. Players need to learn how to move off the ball. Defensive rotations take time to understand and feel intuitively. Andre Drummond can't play this poorly all season (Can he?). Many people, I first among them, expected big things from SVG and this season. But it was never going to be as easy as I hoped. Two games is not adequate time to fully understand a team, but this has been alarming.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-60976057078741026352014-10-27T08:28:00.000-07:002014-10-27T13:56:33.925-07:00Reclamation: The '14-'15 Season Preview<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The dirty secret about the Pistons that no one seems willing to admit? The Pistons are young, especially relative to their experience (the average age is 26 years old, good for 14th in the NBA), and the amount of individual talent is off the charts. Brandon Jennings, a high school-to-pro draftee, enters his sixth NBA season having just turned 25 years old. Josh Smith, another player who skipped the college ranks, enters his 11th season without turning 30 years old. The team’s unquestioned star just turned legal drinking age and finished a tour with Team USA in the FIBA World Championship. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will turn 22 during his sophomore year campaign and fifth-year power forward Greg Monroe won’t be 25 until after the season. The only three players that will end the season at least 30 years old are Caron Butler (role player), Cartier Martin (role player), and the recently acquired Joel Anthony. Reports of the Pistons’ demise have been greatly exaggerated.<br />
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Last season was an unmitigated disaster. It began with Maurice Cheeks and ended with a diaspora of 20-foot jump shots. But the motivations behind Joe Dumars’ roster molding weren’t malicious nor entirely ill-conceived. Dumars understood the current positional revolution happening in the NBA, and when he <a href="http://www.mlive.com/pistons/index.ssf/2013/07/new_detroit_pistons_forward_jo.html" target="_blank">said</a> “The primary reason for Josh being the No. 1 guy and a player that we wanted to pursue the most was because of his versatility,” and something to the extent of “get the best players on the floor and we’ll figure out the positions later,” he had the best intentions in mind. The biggest issue for the Pistons was that the players Dumars had assembled fundamentally eschewed this philosophical shift. Andre Drummond can’t play farther than 5 feet from the basket. Monroe is a prototypical back-to-the-basket power forward. Jennings could never fit into any role other than point guard. Fundamentally, Dumars understood the thematic shift of the NBA, but he had long-since stopped understanding players.<br />
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The ’13-’14 Pistons were a potentially good team executed in the worst possible manner, so with the introduction of Stan Van Gundy as the team’s new shepherd, it’s time to reconsider the Pistons' potential. Jennings, a ball-dominant passing wizard enters this season after setting his career high in assists per game, despite playing on a team that finished tied with Sacramento for 19th in offensive efficiency. Jennings averaged 1.1 more assists per game than his previous career high, while his 2.7 turnovers per game were only 0.2 higher than his career average. His 2.81 A/TO ratio on the season improved his career ratio to 2.44 A/TO (a number that bests Tony Parker’s career A/TO ratio).<br />
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What plagued Jennings last year was his shot selection and inability to finish at the rim, chronic problems throughout his career. But you could see it in his play: “If I can hit this three pointer in transition, we’ll get the deficit under 10 points.” It was a video game mentality, the kind of thing he can pull off in the Drew League. Jennings felt compelled to put the team on his back and carry them to victory, rather than understanding basketball as a game of attrition. And given the outfits he’s played on throughout his career, it’s hard to fault him. This preseason, while his shooting was problematic, his distribution was on full display: through six games, Jennings charted 44 assists to just 8 turnovers. Though he also went 7-23 from outside and struggled shooting the ball, it’s possible that he won’t be called on to take many shots this season, instead focusing on distribution and generating good shots for his teammates.<br />
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Josh Smith, too, has been written off and left for dead by fans, but remains a unique power forward everyman. Last season, Smith, forced to play on the perimeter as Drummond and Monroe consumed the paint, shot 3.4 three pointers per game, more than double his career average (1.6 3FGA/game). This preseason, Smith is 3-7 from outside through seven games. Also on display are all of the other aspects of Smith’s game that make him a terror: 45 rebounds (6.43 rebounds/game), 35 assists (5 assists/game), 6 blocks, and 4 steals. Unfortunately, Smith is shooting only 42% from the field and has amassed 21 turnovers. In spite of these problems, during the Pistons’ preseason finale, Smith was making a conscious effort to catch the ball high and drive into the lane, either <a href="http://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/10/24/7062729/josh-smith-welcomes-nerlens-noel-to-the-nba" target="_blank">finishing at the rim</a> (7 of his 14 shots in this game came in the paint) or kicking the ball out to open shooters, something he’s remarkably adept at for a power forward.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/7qZ6hAWIUB4" width="560"></iframe></center>
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And therein lies the promise of Josh Smith at power forward. His ability to run the floor, distribute to teammates, occasionally stretch the floor, and defend both bigger and smaller players is the versatility that Dumars was looking at when he signed the enigmatic big man. Because Smith can do these things better than most power forwards, teams have assumed that he is a multi-positional player, which he’s simply not. Smith is difficult to guard and an exceptional defender precisely because few power forwards in the league can match his skill set. Watching those highlights from the preseason finale, you see Smith drive hard into the lane, kick out passes to open three point shooters, and posterize Nerlens Noel, who dominated Andre Drummond throughout the game. It is easy—and probably wise—to remain skeptical of Smith, a mercurial player throughout his career, but with SVG at the helm, we can expect the best out of the Pistons’ wonky, talented makeup.<br />
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All of which is true before you get to the franchise’s centerpiece and running mate, Drummond and Monroe, respectively. Monroe stopped being an asset to the Pistons the moment he signed the qualifying offer. Trading him becomes nearly impossible, and, even if the Pistons are able to re-sign him following a successful season, they’d be doing so with an unrestricted free agent for market price. Regardless, Monroe is playing in a contract season, a phenomenon that almost universally sees NBA players outperform expectations. More importantly for Monroe—as long as he’s able to humble himself and accept the role—will be coming off the bench. Monroe and Drummond’s games do not complement one another, due to their mutual limitations. Monroe is yet to develop a consistent mid-range game, forcing him closer to the basket than a power forward would ideally play. Combine that with Drummond’s almost nonexistent offensive game through two seasons, and suddenly those devastating Monroe spin moves from the post are being greeted by the opposing center. Monroe’s saving grace is his excellent hands and passing ability, but those could be put to better use with more space.<br />
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Drummond and Smith present an athletic frontcourt unlike many in the NBA. Both run significantly better than replacements at their position, and are able to create havoc on the defensive end because of their mobility (think a poor man’s DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin on both ends of the floor). With Jennings’ flashy, consistent passing, dunks in transition and off of high pick and rolls should become a staple of an offense whose primary tenant will be stretching the floor. Monroe acts as a counterpunch to that attack. With a post-up game that has few contemporaries, playing Monroe with stretch power forwards like Jonas Jerebko will clear the lane for Monroe to attack defenses with ease.<br />
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This was always the strength of the frontcourt hodgepodge. In a league dominated by wings and point guards, the Pistons (like Memphis and pre-All Star Paul George before them) have the depth, variation, and skill to bully teams on the inside. What was missing was an ability to both manage those egos and punish opposing teams for focusing on the interior. The acquisitions of Jodie Meeks—whose contract will be a drop in the bucket when the salary cap expands—Caron Butler, and DJ Augustin, along with a sophomore leap from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, will remedy this missing piece.<br />
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Defensively, the outlook isn’t as cheery. The Pistons will be a better team simply by having a consistent scheme that allows them to develop as a unit, but on a player-to-player basis, there are still some glaring issues. For proof of the Pistons’ coaching ineptitude last season, look no further than how they defended the pick and roll. With no communication between the on-ball and screen defender, ball carriers were often escorted to the basket. And while the preseason has shown some improvement in this area, allowing 103 points on 47% shooting to the 76ers, a team openly trying to lose, is startling.<br />
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Like the offense, Detroit’s defensive prowess will be heaped on the back of Andre Drummond, a sub-par on-ball defender who still hasn’t made his mark as someone who can alter a play from the weakside. Drummond rebounds as well as any player in the league, but his defensive impact lacks the effect of Dwight Howard, the player to whom most have compared Drummond following SVG’s arrival. Drummond is great at challenging shots, but to become an All Defensive Team member, he will need to become more adept at getting a hand on the ball. Where he struggles most is in one-on-one match ups, where he is frequently duped on the block and often beaten to the basket. This will hopefully develop with time, but '14-'15 is an important season in his development.<br />
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Besides Drummond, there is Smith, who is a great weakside defender and source of havoc, and KCP, the Pistons’ unquestioned perimeter defensive star. Short of that, the Pistons will struggle to keep teams in front of them. Jennings is abhorrent on the perimeter, often gambling for steals off the ball and playing olé defense on the ball. Butler doesn’t have much left in the tank, so his impact on the defensive end will be minimal. DJ Augustin is known to be one of the worst defenders in the league, and Jodie Meeks has never excelled on that end. And players like Jerebko, Singler, or Cartier Martin don’t move the needle much. The Pistons’ best hope on this side of the ball is improvement from Drummond in the middle and an offense that forces the opposition to take the ball out of the basket more often than not.<br />
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The one true known is Stan Van Gundy, a proven coach unwilling to deal with the bullshit that surrounds this Pistons roster. This is the first time in well over a decade that the Pistons have had a coach this universally praised. Whether or not the oft-discussed 4-out, 1-in offensive scheme becomes a reality this season (which, for the record, I’m skeptical given Drummond’s still-shaky offensive game), SVG will have a scheme that is intelligible and puts players in their optimal position.<br />
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Perhaps most importantly, this Pistons team is going to be fun to watch. With loads of young talent and a rotation that makes sense, this is a proving ground year for most of these players. Jennings and Smith are undertaking reclamation projects. For Smith, he wants to prove that he can both help lead a young team (something he was accused of being unable to do in Atlanta) as well as recover from the worst season of his career. Jennings may finally be able to come through on his promise of becoming a more complete, effective player in Detroit; he finally has the teammates and will now have the scheme. Monroe wants a big contract. KCP wants a career. Meeks and Augustin want to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. This is a blue collar team the way that Dumars imagined, but not for the reasons he hoped. The Pistons will pick themselves up and dust themselves off. This season will be the first step.<br />
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Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-3311926268458940402014-10-09T06:00:00.000-07:002014-10-09T08:42:44.596-07:00The Pistons' New Offensive PhilosophyMuch was made about Stan Van Gundy's 4-out, 1-in offensive scheme prior to the season, what with Andre Drummond passing as a young Dwight Howard and the Pistons' influx of shooting in free agency. But simply posting up Drummond every time down the floor is unsustainable, and generating good outside looks requires off-ball movement and a team passing quickly around the floor. Play design dictates this movement, which was woefully lacking last year (hence the <a href="http://www.isiahwasaprophet.com/2014/10/preseason-game-1-snap-reactions.html" target="_blank">19.3 3FGA/game in the '13-'14 season</a>). In the first half of yesterday's game, the Pistons ran an unusual offensive set that takes advantage of many of the en vogue trends in NBA offenses today.<br />
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With Brandon Jennings bringing the ball up the right side of the floor, the most obvious (and unusual) formation on the floor was Caron Butler and Jonas Jerebko standing next to one another on the left wing. In addition, Jodie Meeks is standing on the baseline behind Drummond, who is in the post.<br />
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When Jennings gets to the right wing, Drummond sets a pin down screen on the block, allowing Meeks to curl out from the baseline and flash through the lane. This is Jennings' first read. If Meeks gets open in the lane, Jennings can quickly pass him the ball for a layup. (Meeks also has the option to drop a pocket pass to Drummond who would roll to the basket if Jennings throws the ball inside, but that never happened in this game.) If Meeks doesn't get open, he runs directly to the opposite short corner.<br />
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With Meeks in the opposite corner, Drummond now rolls up to the right wing to play a two-man game with Jennings. Drummond sets a pick freeing Jennings to attack the outside of the formation. In addition, Butler moves from his spot on the wing to the top of the key, giving the Pistons three-point shooters spaced evenly around the weakside of the court.<br />
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As Jennings turns the corner of the Drummond screen, he has five potential options. Other than taking a shot or attacking the rim, Jennings has a clear view of the court and can potentially see all four of his teammates. If Jennings can put the defending point guard on his hip, that forces the center to defend Jennings, opening a dive for Drummond (hence all of the alley oops in the first game). If the opposing shooting guard, power forward, or small forward collapse on Drummond, Jennings will have an open three point shooter. Commence swinging the ball around the perimeter to generate an open three pointer.<br />
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This play is little more than a high pick and roll between Jennings and Drummond, but it's the off-ball movement and eventual spacing that make it such an effective set. One of the problems with the Pistons offense last year was the lack of options. Often, the team would run a similar pick and roll from the wing but would have a shooter in the playside corner or Monroe/Smith on the weakside block, constricting floorspace for Jennings or Drummond, respectively. With this alignment, if the first few reads aren't available, it's because the defense is helping off of a shooter, leaving him open for a three pointer.<br />
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This play has some restrictions. The Pistons can only reliably run it with Jerebko at power forward because of the necessity to have a stretch-4 to put pressure on the defense. A Drummond/Monroe frontcourt could not run this set, and putting Josh Smith out as one of the floor spacers is begging for a missed jumper. However, given the space on the inside, even a Smith brick could end up as an easy Drummond putback.<br />
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The Pistons ran similar schemes, playing a two-man game on one side of the court while shooters set screens on the weakside of the play. But this kind of pick and roll scheme has dominated the league in recent years: Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, Tony Parker and anyone, Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, Lebron and Lebron, etc. What SVG brings that the Pistons' coaching casualties never did is the foresight to diagram the spacing and potential options for the ballcarrier rather than just the initial action. #SVG4PresidentChris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-74236993991846631812014-10-08T11:12:00.003-07:002014-10-08T11:12:59.399-07:00Preseason Game 1 Snap Reactions<b><span style="font-size: large;">Bulls 109 - Pistons 111 (OT)
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Let us take a minute to rejoice that the NBA season is finally back. The past year in sports has been traumatic, so it's nice to have some on-court gameplay to absorb. Last night's overtime win against the division rival Bulls was an encouraging glimpse into what the future could hold with Stan Van Gundy. The team was as advertised: a coherent, spacing-centered offense featuring Andre Drummond in the middle and a consistent defensive scheme that will only improve as players get more time in the system. Not everything went swimmingly, but it's hard to picture a more promising start to the '14-'15 season. Without further ado, snap reactions with grossly oversimplified conclusions!<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Bullets</span></b><br />
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<ul>
<li><b>Van Gundy opened the game with a lineup of Jennings-Meeks-Butler-Smith-Drummond</b>, choosing to bring Greg Monroe off the bench. SVG eschewed the mistake that the Pistons' coaches made last year by allowing Smith to play his natural position at power forward. The Pistons started fast and aggressive, getting out in transition, spacing the floor, and finding Drummond inside without any defenders in sight. </li>
<li><b>Josh Smith was somewhere between Josh Smith and Josh Smith+.</b> There were moments of clarity for Smith in this game. He opened with two long jumpers that both went in, but followed that up with miss after miss from the same, inefficient spot. On the first offensive possession of the second half, Smith received the ball just inside the three point line and, rather than throwing up a late-contested jumper, he dished the ball inside to Drummond who was able to lay it in through traffic. It seemed that someone on the coaching staff had a word with Smith during halftime about his shot selection, but after this moment of foresight, Smith went back to unparalleled heaver, ending the game 4-11 from the field for 9 points.</li>
<li><b>Jodie Meeks and DJ Augustin are hard to defend.</b> Off-ball movement was rarely seen last year but is crucial in SVG's offensive system. Meeks and Augustin were constantly running off of pin down screens and flashing into the lane. Both showed quickness off the ball and were able to get to open spots, both in the lane and on the three-point line. This will stress defenses throughout the season and is one reason why Drummond found so many open looks inside.</li>
<li><b>Drummond's post play needs a lot of work. </b>Dwight Howard was the focal point of SVG's most effective offense. Defenses had to commit at least 1.5 defenders to Howard on the post, allowing shooters to find openings. Though Howard's post proficiency never reached elite levels, he was still able to manipulate defenses and find open shooters because of what he had the potential to do. Drummond is a long way from becoming a dominant force inside. His post moves consist of backing his defender down and throwing up a contested baby hook. It rarely ended well in this game, but it's clearly an element of the offense that will be stressed throughout the season. Drummond will need to show significant improvement for this to become an effective dimension.</li>
<li><b>The Pistons took a lot of three pointers. </b>The <a href="http://www.si.com/more-sports/2012/05/14/defending-three" target="_blank">current wisdom states</a> that three-point defense is not about limiting 3FG%, which is a number that is highly variable and difficult to control. Effective three-point defense is about limiting the number of 3FG attempts a team takes. The same goes for a team's offensive strategy. In recent years, NBA teams have designed offenses around corner three-point attempts (the Spurs most notably), while last year's Pistons averaged only 19.3 outside shots per game. In the first half of yesterday's win, the Pistons attempted 17 three pointers, ending the game with 32 attempts and connecting on 11 of them. The team's effective field goal percentage was still a shallow 47.3%, but don't expect Singler, Butler, and Meeks to go a combined 3-14 from outside every game. What's important is that the offense generated three pointers at a high rate.</li>
<li><b>One bright spot from the behind the arc was Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. </b>KCP went 4-8 from outside, connecting on shots off the bounce and in catch-and-shoot situations. KCP struggled with consistency last year, stemming from mechanics in his shooting motion. Often, his shots would miss wildly left or right, a sign that the player's form was off. In this game, KCP's misses were uniformly off the front iron but on line. Most promisingly, he was able to catch and rise up over defenders to make a few of his threes. If he can continue that success, in combination with his defense which was on full display against Jimmy Butler, KCP could quickly surpass Meeks as the starting shooting guard.</li>
<li><b>Greg Monroe is the same guy as last year.</b> Despite coming off the bench, Monroe evoked the full range of emotions. When he and Jonas Jerebko entered the game in the first quarter, the Pistons immediately went on a skid, spearheaded by Monroe's lazy defense and rebounding. (Watching Derrick Rose come from out of bounds to tip an offensive rebound to himself as Monroe stood idly by was especially egregious.) He olé'd his defensive assignment multiple times and was summarily beaten by Pau Gasol on both ends of the floor. But his box score is filled: 24 points on 9-14 shooting, 9 rebounds (5 offensive), 2 assists, and 1 steal. This performance epitomizes my problem with Monroe's game. On a play-to-play basis, Monroe is lazy and dismissive, but his stat sheet is usually filled with above-average numbers. It will be interesting to see if SVG's defensive focus can help Monroe develop into a more complete, every-possession kind of player.</li>
<li><b>Brandon Jennings is still fun.</b> Jennings got a bad rep last season as a score-first point guard without much regard for moving the ball. Much of that was warranted, but he made a career of being a low turnover, flashy distributor. Jennings finished with 10 assists and 0 turnovers by finding the Pistons bigs inside and properly moving the ball around the offense. Though he still finished 3-12 from the field for 10 points, his ability to run the offense and stress the defense was something that the Pistons will need this season if the shooting bogs down.</li>
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The team also did some interesting things schematically in this game that I'll talk about in the coming days. What you need to know is that SVG is the real deal. Adjust expectations accordingly, but fringe playoff team that gets blown out by the Cavs in the first round is definitely within reach. We made it, you guys.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3107967552773350710.post-80547694607513403162014-07-03T19:06:00.000-07:002014-07-03T19:06:35.995-07:00Pistons sign Jodie Meeks<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The assumption since the Pistons hired Stan Van Gundy was that he took the job to implement his 4-out, 1-in offensive system centered on Andre Drummond. To do so, the team would need spot up shooters, of which the roster was bereft of last season. With the exception of Kyle Singler, who according to Synergy Sports shot 41.7% in spot-up situations, the team had very few options on the outside. You all know what happened with Josh Smith, KCP struggled with consistency, and Brandon Jennings dominated the ball too much to function as a spot-up sniper.<br />
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Enter Jodie Meeks, the Lakers' erstwhile shooting guard who saw career numbers across the board last season playing in Mike D'Antoni's wide-open offensive system. With the Pistons, there will be less running and gunning, but if SVG's prior offenses are any indication, there will be plenty of opportunities for Meeks to get looks. Meeks took 404 three pointers last season (tied for 20th most taken) and shot 40.1% on those attempts. On his spot up looks (203 in total from beyond the arc), Meeks shot 44.3% from outside. The point is, Meeks knows his role on this team.<br />
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However, this brings a few roster issues to light (what's new?). As the roster currently sits, the depth chart would look something approximating:<br />
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<table border="0" cellspacing="0">
<colgroup span="5" width="600"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#000099">
<td align="left" height="23"><b><span style="color: white;">PG</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">SG</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">SF</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">PF</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">C</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Jennings</td>
<td align="left">Meeks</td>
<td align="left">Smith</td>
<td align="left">Monroe</td>
<td align="left">Drummond</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Bynum</td>
<td align="left">Singler</td>
<td align="left">Datome</td>
<td align="left">Jerebko</td>
<td align="left">Harrellson</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Dinwiddie</td>
<td align="left">KCP</td>
<td align="left">Cartier Martin</td>
<td align="left">Mitchell</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Siva</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<hr size="1" />
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In other words, it looks almost identical to how it did last year with a few upgrades to the role players. Including Chauncey Billups, the Pistons currently have 16 men on their roster (following the signing of Cartier Martin). I don't believe there's any way Billups sticks around for the final year of his contract. If he does, it likely won't be with the Pistons, as I assume SVG doesn't feel any loyalty to a player he's never coached. Still, if Billups does remain with the team, Siva seems like the player most likely not to make the cut. The Pistons' best case scenario for fixing this roster is via trade.<br />
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The rumblings lately have been that the Pistons are making a play for Sacramento's Isaiah Thomas. Signing him outright as a free agent doesn't make much sense, but trades have been wistfully floated. The key trade piece mentioned has been Josh Smith (this is cobbled together from rumors of the Kings' interest in Smith and the Pistons' interest in Thomas). Smith isn't as bad as he performed last season, but either he or Monroe needs to find a new home. While I would be upset paying Monroe $15 million a year, his upside trumps Smith's at this point of their respective careers.<br />
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The Kings are in need of a power forward and Smith is in need of a roster that allows him to play power forward, which on paper seems great. In reality, playing Smith, Rudy Gay, and DeMarcus Cousins together is probably unwise. That's for another front office to figure out. Hypothetically, if the Pistons are able to move Smith for Thomas, the depth chart suddenly makes a lot more sense:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellspacing="0">
<colgroup span="5" width="600"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#000099">
<td align="left" height="23"><b><span style="color: white;">PG</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">SG</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">SF</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">PF</span></b></td>
<td align="left"><b><span style="color: white;">C</span></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Jennings</td>
<td align="left">Meeks</td>
<td align="left">Singler</td>
<td align="left">Monroe</td>
<td align="left">Drummond</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Thomas</td>
<td align="left">KCP</td>
<td align="left">Datome</td>
<td align="left">Jerebko</td>
<td align="left">Harrellson</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Bynum</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left">Martin</td>
<td align="left">Mitchell</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Dinwiddie</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="23">Siva</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<hr size="1" />
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The key to the Meeks signing, in my opinion, is KCP's ability to play small forward when Singler needs a rest. Gigi Datome proved last year that he's not ready significant minutes in an NBA uniform, least of all guard some of the wing players in the league. Meanwhile, with KCP's athleticism and speed, he's able to go toe-to-toe with many of the small forwards around the league (I'm thinking specifically of when he shut down Paul George for an entire game, prior to the All Star break when the Pacers summarily imploded).<br />
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Meeks' experience and consistency will likely earn him the starting nod at shooting guard barring a massive improvement from KCP this summer. Moving Smith allows Singler to slide into his natural position at small forward. Meanwhile, Thomas, KCP, and Dinwiddie could provide a much-needed punch off the bench.<br />
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Smith's contract could be hard to move, however. If he remains on the roster, SVG seems smart enough to move him to the bench behind Greg Monroe at PF and deal with the ego explosion that comes. Even without Thomas, Singler moving to SF with Meeks at SG will give the Pistons ample offensive firepower and properly stretch the floor for Monroe and Drummond to work inside. If Meeks proves to be too significant of a defensive downgrade, KCP can slot into the starting role.<br />
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The lynchpin of that 2009 Orlando Magic team--SVG's most famous and successful--was the duo of 6'10" forwards Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, stretching the floor while also defending with length. The Magic were able to surround Howard with size and shooting, something the Pistons can't do. Meeks is a defensive liability and at 6'5" doesn't have a ton of upside. However, SVG has been able to coax the best out of role players, and Meeks could find his niche on the defensive end. However, playing alongside Brandon Jennings will do him no favors.<br />
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Jennings, Meeks, Singler, and Monroe could prove hazardous for the Pistons' starting rotation. All are subpar individual defenders and, much as he's a budding star, Drummond is nowhere near the defensive player that Howard was/is. The starting shooting guard and small forward roles will be occupied by some combination of KCP, Meeks, and Singler, only one of whom is a good defender, and none of whom have ideal NBA size for their natural position. With few small forward free agents on the market with interest in Detroit, best case scenario here remains SVG's ability to cobble together a defensive system that can make up for weak individual perimeter defense.<br />
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The Meeks signing is not without problems: his defense, prior to last season he never shot over 40% from outside--though he came close a few times--and even with a career season, his PER didn't reach 15. Paying him almost $7 million a year is a reach, especially with the current composition of the Pistons' roster. But SVG needs shooting and Meeks should be able to provide that. With the salary cap ballooning and shooting becoming a premium, if the Pistons can snag a young SG with upside now, it could prove to offer significant savings down the line. Besides, the Pistons won't hit a real salary crunch for quite a while. When Drummond is up for an extension, Billups, Datome, and Jerebko will be off the books, and Brandon Jennings will be on the last year of his contract and a highly valuable trade asset. Potentially dumping Smith for a cheaper contract in Thomas would further alleviate costs. If Meeks can shoot at least 40% from downtown throughout his contract, he'll prove to be a valuable addition to the team.Chris Gaerighttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11199782156789895674noreply@blogger.com0